Pennsylvania pick of the week: Sacco's first-timer stands out at Penn National

An intriguing group of 2-year-old maidens will sprint for victory December 21 at Penn National, but the past performances don’t provide many clues for identifying the winner.

Seven youngsters have been entered in this five-furlong maiden special weight, which goes as the sixth race of the day with a post time of 8:23 p.m. ET. You can split the entrants into two groups—the experienced runners who don’t offer much in the way of promising form, and the first-time starters who are completely unknown commodities.

In terms of Brisnet speed ratings, none of the experienced runners are fast enough to win a typical race at this class level. The par winning figure is 80, but the best speed rating in this field is a 70 posted by 2-1 morning-line favorite #2 Life Master Jim in a $25,000 maiden claiming race two starts back. A slightly classier running line comes from #5 Yes Sir Colonel, who finished third at this class level, track and distance December 12, but he was beaten 8 1/2 lengths and posted a 65 Brisnet speed rating.

It shouldn’t take a particularly strong performance for any of the first-time starters to reach the winner’s circle. That’s why I’m eager to support #7 Saquon, who has shipped in from New York for high-percentage trainer Gregory Sacco.

Sacco has had a strong year, with a 20% win rate, but he’s been downright deadly at Penn National. From eight starters, he’s saddled five winners, two runners-up, and one third-place finisher—that’s 63% winners and a 100% in-the-money strike rate.

Sacco’s record alone is reason enough to support Saquon, but there are other positive factors to sweeten the deal. Saquon’s work tab looks solid, with a few breezes from the starting gate and a bullet three-furlong move November 10. His breeding is appealing too—sire Adios Charlie was a grade 3 winner who sires 15% winners from first-time starters—and Sacco has enlisted jockey Tyler Conner to ride. Conner wins at a 19% rate at Penn National and is second in the jockey standings, with 138 winners through December 19. Over the last two months, Sacco and Conner have gone 3-for-4 when they team up.

I view Saquon as a clear standout. If his 3-1 morning-line odds hold up, I'll definitely play him to win. Let's also key Saquon on top in the superfecta.

$20 to win on #7 Saquon $2 superfecta: 7 with 2,5 with 2,4,5,6 with 2,4,5,6 ($24) $2 superfecta: 7 with 4,6 with 2,5 with 2,4,5,6 ($16)

Good luck!