Picks for three Kentucky Derby preps Feb. 1

Fans of the Road to the Kentucky Derby have plenty to be excited about this weekend.

Three major prep races are scheduled to run Saturday—the $250,000 Withers (G3) at Aqueduct, the $100,000 Robert B. Lewis (G3) at Santa Anita, and the $250,000 Holy Bull (G3) at Gulfstream Park.

Who should you play on this big afternoon of racing? We’ve got a few ideas.

Withers Stakes

#5 Shotski is understandably the 2-1 morning-line favorite. He’s already proven over the track and 1 1/8-mile distance of the Withers, as he scored a gate-to-wire victory in the Remsen (G2) on Dec. 7. As the lone graded stakes winner in the Withers field, Shotski figures to receive plenty of play.

 

But Shotski benefited from a speed-favoring track in the Remsen, and he led all the way to win by a diminishing half-length. There are a few other speedy colts in the Withers field, including Heft S. winner #2 Monday Morning Qb, so there’s no guarantee Shotski will shake loose on another uncontested lead.

I plan to oppose Shotski with #8 Portos. A stoutly bred son of Tapit, out of a Tiznow mare, Portos has already run three times at 1 1/8 miles, most notably when he broke his maiden by 10 3/4 lengths Dec. 31 at Aqueduct. A deep closer early in his career, Portos has slowly gained tactical speed and may have turned a corner with his dominant maiden win.

Since Portos is less accomplished than Shotski, he’ll carry just 118 pounds, an advantage compared to Shotski’s 123-pound assignment. Hot jockey Jose Lezcano (by far the leading rider at Aqueduct this winter) will retain the mount on Portos for three-time Withers-winning trainer Todd Pletcher.

Let’s key Portos in the exacta, with Shotski and Monday Morning Qb.

$8 exacta: 8 with 2,5 ($16)
$7 exacta: 2,5 with 8 ($14)

Robert B. Lewis Stakes

Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert has won four of the last seven editions of the Robert B. Lewis and figures to strike again with #2 Thousand Words. Purchased for $1 million as a yearling, Thousand Words is undefeated in two starts and showed excellent speed and determination to defeat Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) runner-up Anneau d’Or in the Dec. 7 Los Alamitos Futurity (G2).

 

Thousand Words has an edge in Brisnet Speed ratings and should land in the winner’s circle, but he’ll be a very short price in the wagering. To boost the payoff, consider playing him in a cold exacta with #3 Tizamagician, an improving maiden winner who has cracked the top two in five of his six starts for trainer Richard Mandella.

Holy Bull Stakes

Over the last eight years, six favorites have lost the Holy Bull at odds of 19-10 or less, including five proven graded stakes winners. In other words, history suggests Champagne (G1) winner #3 Tiz the Law isn’t a lock to win this 1 1/16-mile race.

I’m going to think outside the box and play 12-1 shot #2 Uncork the Bottle to win. Conditioned by hot trainer Saffie Joseph (winning at a 37% rate this year), Uncork the Bottle is 3-for-3 against easier company. He showed some grit to bull his way out of a pocket and win a one-mile turf allowance race on Jan. 18, when he sprinted the final quarter in :23 4/5. He can deliver a career-best effort back on dirt.

Good luck!