Promises Fulfilled stands out in John A. Nerud Stakes

Following a series of troubled defeats against tougher company, it appears #9 Promises Fulfilled has found the perfect spot to rebound in Saturday’s $300,000 John A. Nerud Stakes (G2) at Belmont Park.

This seven-furlong sprint serves as a “Win and You’re In” qualifier to the 2019 Breeders’ Cup Sprint (G1) at Santa Anita Park, a race in which Promises Fulfilled finished fourth last season. The son of Shackleford had compiled a strong record heading into the 2018 Breeders’ Cup, when he used his excellent early speed to record consecutive victories in the Amsterdam Stakes (G3), H. Allen Jerkens Stakes (G1) and Phoenix Stakes (G2).

But in the Breeders’ Cup, Promises Fulfilled dueled hard for the lead through blazing fractions of :21.35 and :44.21 and faded in the homestretch. His troubles have only continued in 2019. He kicked off the season by traveling halfway across the world to compete in the Dubai Golden Shaheen (G1), where a slow start forced him to employ late-running tactics on his way to a fourth-place finish.

Promises Fulfilled ran better in the Churchill Downs Stakes (G1) on Kentucky Derby Day, where he came in third after setting the pace, but stretching out to a mile in the Metropolitan Handicap (G1) again produced frustrating results, as he stumbled at the start, advanced into a strong pace, drew within a length of the lead at the eighth pole and weakened late to finish fourth.

Promises Fulfilled’s performance in the Met Mile was encouraging, because he made a nice middle move and was in the hunt until deep stretch while running a distance longer than his best. The only horses to beat him were the proven grade 1 winners Mitole, McKinzie and Thunder Snow, and Promises Fulfilled isn’t facing any rivals of their caliber in the Nerud.

Promises Fulfilled is the only grade 1 winner in the Nerud field, and he also looms as one of just two clear speed horses, with the other being longshot #5 Killybegs Captain. Promises Fulfilled should have little difficulty securing the lead Saturday, though drawing post 9 affords jockey Luis Saez the option of settling just off the lead if Killybegs Captain is intent on setting the pace.

I expect Promises Fulfilled to bring his "A" game while dropping in class and distance, so for the purpose of multi-race wagers, I view him as a viable single. I’m less interested in playing single-race wagers like the exacta and trifecta, since the remainder of the field looks pretty evenly matched and almost anyone could finish second or third on their best day.

Let’s bet Promises Fulfilled to win and play him in a double bet with #2 Newspaperofrecord, my top choice in Race 7, the Belmont Oaks (G1).

$20 to win on #9 Promises Fulfilled $10 Race 7 double: 2 with 9

Good luck!