Racing Roundtable: Louisiana Derby Day and Dubai World Cup

After a newsworthy weekend on the domestic and foreign racing fronts, TwinSpires.com editors James Scully, Kellie Reilly, and Vance Hanson look back on developments at Fair Grounds and Dubai.

Are you more bullish on Epicenter's Kentucky Derby (G1) hopes after the Louisiana Derby (G2)?

James Scully: Yes, Epicenter strengthened his Kentucky Derby credentials winning the Louisiana Derby by 2 1/2 lengths. After racing on or close to the lead in his first five starts, Epicenter displayed a new dimension in the Louisiana Derby, taking kickback for the first time as he rated behind rivals, and that versatility should serve him well in the Kentucky Derby. He also registered a career-best 101 Brisnet Speed rating, joining Forbidden Kingdom and Messier as the only contenders to register triple-digit Speed figures this year.

Kellie Reilly: Epicenter definitely advanced his Derby claims in my view. Although the Louisiana Derby wasn't the deepest of final preps, Epicenter furnished two new bullet points on his résumé: tactical versatility and a robust BRIS Late Pace rating (106). I'd appreciated his pace-pressing style in his Churchill Downs maiden and Gun Runner S. wins, but in his Lecomte (G3) near-miss and Risen Star (G2) romp, he looked more like a willful free-wheeler who wouldn't switch off. Epicenter proved that he could indeed switch off while securing good position in the Louisiana Derby, and as a result, he delivered a much stronger finish. His new Fair Grounds 1 3/16-mile track record of 1:54.38 is a bonus.

Vance Hanson: From not having him on my top 10 list, based on his seeming one-dimensionality and concerns about his ability to get 1 1/4 miles, Epicenter is now a firm top five candidate in my estimation. As alluded to above, the versatility he displayed in winning the Louisiana Derby was the difference maker. Assuming he chooses to retain the mount, Joel Rosario now has options in how best to navigate the Derby distance based on what's going on around him and other circumstances that might arise in-running. The Fair Grounds route to Louisville has historically underachieved, but Epicenter looks like he'll be one of its stronger banner carriers of late.

Is Echo Zulu's close call in the Fair Grounds Oaks (G2) a concern going forward?

JS: Yes, a major concern. Echo Zulu's speed and class proved unbeatable last season, but she couldn't get back to the races until late March and showed vulnerability in the 1 1/16-mile Fair Grounds Oaks, holding by a nose after dictating the pace as lone speed. Her Brisnet Speed rating (90) dropped 13 points from a convincing win in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies (G1), and she will have to handle 1 1/8 miles and deeper competition in the Kentucky Oaks (G1).

KR: It is a concern, and a reminder of why no champion two-year-old filly has gone on to win the Kentucky Oaks since Hall of Famer Silverbulletday (1999). To be sure, Echo Zulu won the Fair Grounds Oaks on pure class, since she didn't have the benefit of a tightener, and she'll gain fitness from this. Yet she'd need to come on in leaps and bounds to beat later-developing fillies who might have progressed beyond her. Echo Zulu didn't look like she'll be ready to repel the likes of Adare Manor, Secret Oath, or Nest in the division's prestigious events at 1 1/8 miles. Although she's by Gun Runner, Echo Zulu is a half-sister to Grade 1-winning sprinter Echo Town and J Boys Echo, who maxed out at 1 1/16 miles.

VH: The preparation for the Fair Grounds Oaks seemed like a rush-job, and Echo Zulu was arguably lucky the field she faced was both numerically small and not of her class. Although she likely moves forward off the race and now has six weeks to gear up for the Kentucky Oaks, there's a whiff of underlay about her now. We'll see who emerges from the other Oaks preps at Oaklawn, Santa Anita, Gulfstream, Keeneland, and Aqueduct, but right now I wouldn't hesitate in making Echo Zulu one of my fades for Derby weekend.

Were Life Is Good's distance limitations exposed in the Dubai World Cup (G1)?

JS: Yes, Life Is Good was exposed at 1 1/4 miles on Saturday. The track played slowly but appeared favorable to frontrunning types, and Life Is Good had everything his way as the controlling speed, until the latter stages, coughing up a clear lead and weakening to fourth. His speed may play better in the Breeders' Cup Classic (G1) at Keeneland later this year, but the 10-furlong trip caught up to him in the Dubai World Cup.

KR: That was my knee-jerk reaction while watching Life Is Good come up empty after a seemingly dream trip around Meydan. Indeed, I'd had a stamina scruple about him on the 2021 Kentucky Derby trail, and only recently did he convince me otherwise. So I was predisposed to flip-flopping to my original opinion. But upon further review, there was more going on than Life Is Good just collapsing. The final time was 2:04.97 — the slowest-ever World Cup on dirt — suggesting that a tiring surface at least played some role. Although the Godolphin Mile (G2) early on the card finished in 1:36.03, the about six-furlong Golden Shaheen (G1) elapsed in 1:11.13 (two full seconds off the track record) by nightfall. Speed held in the former, but backpedaled in the latter. Had Life Is Good packed it in when the track was playing faster under the bright sun, he'd have no excuse. But it's plausible that he was exhausted by his first try at the classic distance in those conditions.

VH: Life Is Good was asked to achieve something no U.S.-based horse had done before, and that was win the Dubai World Cup in his first attempt over 1 1/4 miles. Although he had everything his own way, the lack of distance experience and the tiring and slow nature of the surface ultimately worked against him. While I don't believe his brilliance will ever make him a consistently effective 10-furlong performer (indeed, he'd probably try it only once more at most), there's reason to believe he can get it under the right circumstances, like Knicks Go did. The surface conditions he'll encounter back home figure to be more conducive for distance success, and I still feel division honors ultimately will go through him.