Racing Roundtable: Takeaways from the Pegasus World Cup
February 1st, 2022
Following the first compelling big-race weekend of 2022, TwinSpires.com editors James Scully, Kellie Reilly, and Vance Hanson kick off a new series with observations on the big races, storylines, and events of the past week in racing.
What's your main takeaway from the Pegasus World Cup (G1)?
James Scully: Life Is Good is poised for a huge season. And similar to Knicks Go last year, he will dominate races without pace pressure. The four-year-old colt won the Pegasus World Cup during the opening stages, sprinting clear into the first turn, and has too much class to lose when unopposed on the front end. He's that good.
Kellie Reilly: Life Is Good beat Knicks Go at his own frontrunning game, in a tour de force that prompted both excitement for the future and a what-might-have-been. By dispatching the Breeders' Cup Classic (G1) winner and presumptive Horse of the Year, Life Is Good made a persuasive case that he really was the best three-year-old over a route last season. If not for the injury that knocked him off the Triple Crown trail, I think that he would have established his superiority in the marquee divisional races.
Vance Hanson: As jaw-dropping and dazzling Life Is Good looked, his performance lends more credence to the view that the Pegasus World Cup, despite all the publicity and marketing ploughed into it, tends not to produce much in the way of drama. Since arriving on the scene in 2017 as a replacement to the Donn H., the World Cup has been won by the favorite four times while the average margin of victory has been just shy of four lengths. Top-heavy fields do attract eyeballs, no doubt, but the race itself has yet to live up to the hype its creators probably intended. In-race handle the last three years also suggests a number of hardcore bettors increasingly view it as unappetizing fare.
What other performance is noteworthy from Pegasus Day?
JS: Speaker's Corner. He proved sensational in the Fred W. Hooper (G3) at a one-turn mile, withstanding serious pace pressure before powering his way to a comfortable victory, and the four-year-old colt is eligible to carry his improving form forward to two-turn events. The race came back fast (102 Brisnet Speed rating), and he looks very promising for Bill Mott.
KR: Although the Pegasus World Cup Turf (G1) and Filly & Mare Turf (G3) offered plenty of fodder for this category, we didn't learn much of anything new in those events. But the Fred W. Hooper did tell us more about Speaker's Corner, who broke through with his first stakes win. His prior stakes losses had come around 1 1/8 miles, and Gulfstream's one-turn mile gave him a better opportunity to shine. Speaker's Corner was well within himself while engaged in a torrid pace, yet he had enough left to hold off a solid veteran in Fearless.
VH: I'll join the chorus regarding Speaker's Corner, who has developed into a premier one-turn specialist for Godolphin and Mott. Unfortunately, he might have picked the wrong season to come to the fore as I would put his theoretical chances of winning a race like the Metropolitan H. (G1) below that of Life Is Good and Flightline at present. However, a lot can happen between now and early June, and Speaker's Corner has the potential to get even better down the road.
Was the Southwest (G3) a good prep for the Kentucky Derby (G1)?
JS: No, it wasn't a fast race. After tracking a legitimate pace, Newgrange appeared beaten in upper stretch, but he was able to gut out a narrow win because the field came home slowly. It was no surprise to see his Brisnet Speed rating (94) decrease from significantly from the Sham S. (G3), a race in which he had everything his own way on the lead. I came away dubious about the quality of the Southwest field.
KR: Newgrange did nothing to change my opinion of him as one of Bob Baffert's lesser lights. Granted, he deserves credit for a fine attitude, sticking to his task to prevail. But he looked beaten for most of the 1 1/16 miles, and it wouldn't be a surprise if he ends up being better going shorter. Ben Diesel finished a better-than-appears third after racing greenly in his stretch rally. Jockey Jon Court said he got distracted by something, so connections might want to consider blinkers.
VH: A year after showcasing Essential Quality, this edition seemed like a more standard renewal of the Southwest. That is, an Oaklawn prep that will have far less bearing on the classics than the Rebel (G2) or Arkansas Derby (G1). If what jockey John Velazquez said was entirely true, that Newgrange won despite not getting hold of the track for much of the race, it's hard to be optimistic long term about those that ran behind him. Especially disappointing was Dash Attack, who failed to replicate his off-track form on a fast surface.
What else caught your eye?
JS: D. Wayne Lukas is back in the limelight with Secret Oath, who stamped herself as a Kentucky Oaks (G1) contender when posting a 7 1/4-length victory in the Martha Washington S. From the first crop of the late Arrogate, Secret Oath has really come on in recent months, winning her last two starts by a combined 15 1/2 lengths, and the late runner displayed a dynamic turn of foot on Saturday, overcoming a glacial pace to win in commanding manner.
KR: While Friar's Road signaled that he could shake up the turf division in a fast-run San Marcos (G2), I was also encouraged by a more subtle performance at Santa Anita – from one of Baffert's San Vicente (G2) losers. Third-placer McLaren Vale was never going to have the gears to win that seven-furlong test, but he overcame a spot of trouble in the stretch and stayed on late. Just missing second in a blanket finish for the minors, the Gun Runner colt from the family of Justify is worth following when he stretches out.
VH: D. Wayne Lukas first won the Kentucky Oaks (G1) way back in 1982, and his latest victory in that fixture occurred when Seaside Attraction inexplicably handed the legendary Go for Wand a three-length beating in 1990. Although she has to prove herself against much better fillies than the ones she demolished in the Martha Washington at Oaklawn, Secret Oath is a potentially intriguing candidate to snap the Oaks drought for the Hall of Famer. All three of her victories have been by blowout margins, and her continued success would have sentimental value as she's by Arrogate, who sired just three crops prior to his premature death in June 2020.
