Rating the first round of 2020 Kentucky Derby prep races

The year is nearly over, and the first prep races for the 2020 Kentucky Derby (G1) are in the history books.

Between September and December nine Road to the Kentucky Derby prep races were conducted from coast to coast. Along the way we witnessed some impressive performances and major upsets, and while every race was memorable, some were undoubtedly stronger than others.

Let’s go back through the Derby preps and rate them on a scale of 1 to 5. In chronological order, here’s how I rate the overall strength (and presumed future productivity) of the nine races. Which Kentucky Derby prep race do you think has been the strongest so far?

Iroquois Stakes (G3)

Dennis’ Moment looked great when he dominated the Iroquois Stakes, but so far the Iroquois runners haven’t done much in subsequent starts on the Derby trail. We’ll give Dennis’ Moment a pass for his last-place finish in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1)—he stumbled badly at the start—but we’ll limit our overall expectations for runners exiting the Iroquois.

Rating: 1

American Pharoah Stakes (G1)

Runaway winner Eight Rings disappointed in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, but third-place finisher Storm the Court saved the day with his upset victory in North America’s juvenile championship. Fifth-place finisher Shoplifted later won the Remington Springboard Mile, which suggests the American Pharoah was a deep race from top to bottom.

Rating: 4

Champagne Stakes (G1)

Tiz the Law crushed the Champagne field and didn’t run badly when third after a tough trip in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes, but it’s fair to question the quality of the horses he defeated at Belmont Park. Stamina limitations may have held back a couple of his rivals, and fifth-place finisher Alpha Sixty Six was trounced as the favorite in the Remsen.

Rating: 2

Breeders’ Futurity (G1)

Maxfield looked fantastic when he defeated Gouverneur Morris with ease, but neither colt has run since, which makes it tough to gauge the quality of the Breeders’ Futurity. On the bright side distant fourth-place finisher Ajaaweed returned to finish a close second in the Remsen. We’ll trust our eyes on this one and assign the Breeders’ Futurity a high rating.

Rating: 3

Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1)

Storm the Court led a parade of longshots across the finish line, but the Juvenile wasn’t a slow race. Storm the Court posted a fast time and received a 101 Brisnet speed rating. The quality of the race was emphasized when runner-up Anneau d’Or came back to just miss in the Los Alamitos Futurity and seventh-place finisher Shoplifted returned to score in the Remington Springboard Mile.

Rating: 5

Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (G2)

Contested over a sloppy, sealed track, the Kentucky Jockey Club was a messy race visually, and the top three finishers were separated by less than a length at the wire. Champagne winner Tiz the Law might have prevailed with a clean trip, but he was boxed in behind runners for most the race, which allowed Silver Prospector to spring the upset over 87-1 shot Finnick the Fierce.

Rating: 2

Remsen Stakes (G2)

Shotski parlayed a fourth-place finish in the Street Sense Stakes into an upset victory in the Remsen, where he led all the way to stem off Breeders’ Futurity fourth-place runner Ajaaweed by half-length. It was an exciting finish, but the field was comprised primarily of experienced colts exiting lukewarm showings against tougher company. The top finishers will have to step up their game down the road.

Rating: 1

Los Alamitos Futurity (G2)

Bob Baffert’s million-dollar yearling Thousand Words showed tenacity to edge Breeders’ Cup Juvenile runner-up Anneau d’Or in a thrilling battle to the finish line. Grade 3 winner High Velocity and Juvenile third-place finisher Wrecking Crew added depth to the field on paper, though High Velocity ran out of steam at the eighth pole and Wrecking Crew was eased over the wet track.

Rating: 3

Remington Springboard Mile

Hopeful Stakes (G1) runner-up Shoplifted rebounded from a couple of defeats against tougher company to win the Springboard Mile, though runner-up Answer In didn’t get a clean trip down the homestretch and might have been best. The fractional splits look strong enough on paper, but Shoplifted’s pedigree is questionable for classic distances.

Rating: 2