Santa Anita: Handicapping the American Pharoah Stakes

Could a maiden prevail in Saturday’s $300,000 American Pharoah (G1) at Santa Anita?

It might sound farfetched, but it’s not impossible.

There’s a lot more than a rich purse and Grade 1 status on the line in the American Pharoah. The 1 1/16-mile race is also a “Win and You’re In” qualifier for the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) and a Road to the Kentucky Derby prep race that awards qualification points to the top four finishers.

But with Del Mar Futurity (G1) winner Dr. Schivel skipping the American Pharoah, California’s most important race for juveniles is wide open for conquest by an up-and-comer.

So, in the absence of the local division leader, why not support his capable rival, #5 Spielberg?

Spielberg has never won a race and he has been beaten in both of his starts for trainer Bob Baffert. But this $1 million yearling has posted fast speed figures in defeat and held his own against tough competition.

In his debut sprinting 6 furlongs at Del Mar, Spielberg finished second by 5 3/4 lengths against Dr. Schivel and earned a 91 Brisnet Speed rating, which is tied for the best in the American Pharoah field.

Undeterred by this defeat, Baffert entered Spielberg right back in the Del Mar Futurity, where the son of Union Rags dueled for the lead and finished second behind Dr. Schivel again, beaten just 1 3/4 lengths, for an 87 Brisnet Speed rating.

From a pedigree perspective, Spielberg is bred to relish the added distance. His sire, Union Rags, won the Belmont Stakes (G1) and damsire Smart Strike is a source of stamina, with two-time Horse of the Year Curlin and Breeders’ Cup Turf (G1) winner English Channel among his best runners.

In a field not particularly packed with speed, Spielberg figures to secure a perfect trip setting or stalking a modest pace. From there, the chestnut colt will have every chance to survive the homestretch drive and secure his first victory.

Let’s bet Spielberg on top in the exacta and trifecta, with #2 Rombauer, #7 Weston, and #8 Waspirant underneath.

$6 exacta: 5 with 2,7,8 ($18)
$2 trifecta: 5 with 2,7,8 with 2,7,8 ($12)
Total: $30

Good luck!