Santa Anita: Handicapping the Chandelier Stakes

At first glance, Saturday’s $200,000 Chandelier (G2) at Santa Anita has the makings of a competitive race.

Although the 1 1/16-mile event has drawn just five starters, the quality of the field is high. #1 Princess Noor is a Grade 1 winner, #2 Make Mischief and #4 Illumination have placed in graded races, and #3 Varda and #5 Miss Costa Rica enter off impressive debut victories.

But look a little closer, and it becomes apparent one runner has this “Win and You’re In” qualifier for the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies (G1) at her mercy.

Princess Noor is unbeaten and unchallenged in two starts for 11-time Chandelier-winning trainer Bob Baffert, and it is going to take a big effort for anyone to defeat the $1.35 million auction purchase.

A daughter of promising young sire Not This Time, Princess Noor kicked off her career with an effortless maiden win sprinting 5 1/2 furlongs at Del Mar. Though she was never asked to run, Princess Noor prevailed by 2 1/2 lengths, with an 88 Brisnet Speed rating, which equals the highest figure posted by any of her Chandelier rivals.

Princess Noor ran even faster when she stretched out to 7 furlongs in the Del Mar Debutante (G1). After she tracked the early pace, Princess Noor seized command and again powered clear with ease to win by 6 1/2 lengths, for a 96 Brisnet Speed rating.

Princess Noor has continued to train forwardly. She breezed 5 furlongs in a bullet 1:00 1/5 Sept. 21, and the rail draw sets up for a ground-saving trip. If she breaks alertly, Princess Noor figures to wire the Chandelier and keep her unbeaten record intact.

Princess Noor’s Baffert-trained stablemate, Illumination, who finished third in the Debutante, is a logical candidate to hit the board again Saturday. The daughter of Medaglia d’Oro is bred to relish 1 1/16 miles and has the tactical speed to be a factor from the outset. Her main challenger for the exotics might be Varda, a third Baffert trainee who posted an 88 Brisnet Speed rating when she dominated her debut at Del Mar by 3 1/4 lengths.

Could Baffert sweep the trifecta in the Chandelier? It’s well within the realm of possibility, and that’s how we’ll bet the race, with Illumination and Varda underneath their favored stablemate.

$15 trifecta: 1 with 3,4 with 3,4 ($30)

Good luck!