Saratoga: How to bet the Hopeful

The first Grade 1 race of the year for 2-year-old males is also the final Grade 1 of the Saratoga summer meet.

Labor Day is closing day at “the Spa,” and the feature race of the afternoon is the Hopeful (G1), a prominent steppingstone toward the Nov. 6 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) at Keeneland. Seven promising youngsters will face the starter, but three stand out as clear favorites: #6 Jackie’s Warrior (7-5), #5 Reinvestment Risk (8-5), and #3 Mutasaabeq (5-2).

Jackie’s Warrior is certainly the most accomplished horse in the field. After tracking the pace to win his Churchill Downs debut by 2 1/2 lengths over next-out winner Therideofalifetime, Jackie’s Warrior shipped to Saratoga and again defeated Theridreofalifetime in the 6-furlong Saratoga Special (G2).

But Therideofalifetime failed to flatter Jackie’s Warrior when returning to finish a distant fourth in the Iroquois (G3), and the 7-furlong distance of the Hopeful will be a new obstacle for Jackie’s Warrior. There’s plenty of pace in Monday’s field, which could play to the strengths of Reinvestment Risk.

Conditioned by four-time Eclipse Award-winning trainer Chad Brown, Reinvestment Risk was breathtaking in his debut sprinting 6 furlongs at Saratoga. Settling in fourth early on behind an opening quarter-mile in :22.79, Reinvestment Risk seized command through a half-mile in :46.14, then powered clear with complete authority down the stretch. Sprinting the final two furlongs in :11.67 and :12.14, Reinvestment Rate won by 7 3/4 lengths with a 96 Brisnet Speed rating.

Reinvestment Risk’s powerful finish hints he’ll have no trouble negotiating 7 furlongs in the Hopeful. With Saratoga’s leading rider Irad Ortiz in the saddle, this $280,000 auction purchase can make his stakes debut a winning one.

Mutasaabeq is worth strong consideration to round out the exacta. The Todd Pletcher trainee didn’t run quite as fast as Reinvestment Risk in his debut at Saratoga (posting an 88 Brisnet Speed rating), but he nevertheless prevailed by 4 1/2 lengths while heavily favored. As a son of Into Mischief out of a Scat Daddy mare, Mutasaabeq is bred to be an early-maturing speedster, and even a small step forward can put him in contention on Monday.

Let’s bet Reinvestment Risk on top of Jackie’s Warrior and Mutasaabeq in the exacta and trifecta.

$10 exacta: 5 with 3,6 ($20)
$5 trifecta: 5 with 3,6 with 3,6 ($10)
Total: $30

Good luck!