Saratoga Stakes Spot Plays for Friday, August 2

Friday’s 10-race card at Saratoga features three stakes features worth a total of over $1 million capped off by the new $750,000 Saratoga Oaks Invitational.  All three races – races 7 thru 9 – are bettable events individually, and they can also be hooked-up with an All-Stakes Pick 3 that begins in Race 7. Race 7 – National Museum of Racing Hall of Fame Stakes (G2) The lone graded race on the Friday card leads off the stakes action with a field of eight three-year-olds racing one mile on the inner turf course for a purse of $200,000. A case can be made for any of the eight horses in the race, at least when you are talking about the nether regions of the trifectas, but it would behoove you to narrow the race down to its three primary contenders: Casa Creed, Global Access and Moon Colony. The horse to beat is Moon Colony (#8) (7-2), who won the Penn Mile (G2) in an impressive effort two races ago, and then tired last out when stretching out to 1 1/4 miles in the Belmont Derby Invitational (G1). In this one, trainer Mark Casse cuts the colt in distance back to one mile, and that makes Moon Colony the horse to beat. The top challenger looks like Casa Creed (#5) (3-1), who lost to Moon Colony by 1 1/2 lengths in the Penn Derby but followed up that race with a solid third back at Belmont in the $100,000 Manila Stakes, just a half-length behind Win Win Win at this distance. The final main contender is Global Access (#7) (6-1), who adds value to the exotics with Johnny Velazquez picking up the mount off a solid third in a one-mile turf stakes at Woodbine last out. His victory over Swamp Rat in a Florida-bred stakes at Tampa Bay Downs back in March points him out as a legit possibility versus these if able to repeat that best effort. Since just about any of these is good enough to round out the trifectas, go ahead and limit your plays here to the exacta boxes using the aforementioned trio – Casa Creed, Global Access and Moon Colony. Then start the Pick 3 sequence using all three. Race 8 – Alydar Stakes This 1 1/8-mile restricted stakes on the main track is headlined by favored Tom’s d’Etat (#2) (7-5), who not only has loved Saratoga with wins in two prior outings here, but also appears to be resurgent into career-best form lately based on big BRIS Speed figures earned in back-to-back, in-the-money finishes in the Alysheba Stakes (G2) and Stephen Foster Stakes (G2) at Churchill Downs. One of Tom’s d’Etat’s local wins, back in July 2017 at this distance, resulted in his lifetime-best race and best career BRIS Speed figure to date. He can set, press or stalk the pace, and win either way for trainer Al Stall Jr. You can key Tom’s d’Etat on top in trifectas in this race with the three most logical challengers, led by You’re to Blame (#9) (4-1), who has tried his hand at longer races lately but appears to excel the most when entered in races at or near this 1 1/8-mile distance. The last two such outings resulted in victories, including one at Gulfstream Park this April and one right here at Saratoga going nine furlongs last summer. Gets the hot-riding Jose Ortiz aboard for Todd Pletcher. The other two challengers for the trifectas are the 2-3 finishers out of this month’s 1 1/8-mile, $100,000 State Dinner Stakes at Belmont, Candygram (#8) (9-2) and Backyard Heaven (#7) (6-1), respectively. Candygram finished second and has now been in the exacta three straight outings for trainer Jimmy Jerkens, and Backyard Heaven finished third, but perhaps has more upside for Chad Brown/Irad Ortiz Jr. in what will be a big chance for improvement in his second start off an 11-month layoff. Key Tom’s d’Etat in trifectas over You’re to Blame, Backyard Heaven and Candygram. For the second leg of your Pick 3 that you start the race before in Race 7, use two horses in this leg, Tom’s d’Etat and You’re to Blame. Race 9 – Saratoga Oaks Invitational The new $750,000 Saratoga Oaks Invitational goes at 1 3/16 miles on the Mellon turf course. The race attracted only six runners, topped by heavy 2-5 favorite Concrete Rose (#5) (2-5), who appears to be the North American three-year-old turf filly division leader based on back-to-back wins in the Florida Oaks (G3), Edgewood (G3) and Belmont Oaks Invitational (G1) at distances ranging from 1 1/16 miles to 10 furlongs. This 1 3/16-mile test should fall right in her wheelhouse, and for good measure, she’s already won here at Saratoga, too, with a 5 1/2-furlong turf dash maiden win at first asking last summer. Aiden O’Brien sends a pair to try to knock off the favorite, but each appear questionable with Happen (#2) (4-1) stretching out beyond one mile for the first time and Coral Beach (#3) (12-1) already having lost to Concrete Rose by nearly 10 lengths in the Belmont Oaks. Chad Brown’s runner, Olendon (#1) (6-1), also needs to make up about 10 lengths on Concrete Rose from their meeting in the Belmont Oaks. Cap-off the Pick 3 bets that you started in Race 7 by singling Concrete Rose. If you wanted to invest a little more in order to try to beat the favorite and cash a decent-sized ticket, you could also put in Happen for a chance at the upset. Happen is a Group 3 winner and shouldn’t be too harshly judged for her loss last time out at Royal Ascot in the Coronation Stakes (G1). For exactas, you can box Concrete Rose and Happen, and hope it comes in the other way for a decent payout. Enjoy a great Friday card of racing and wagering at Saratoga! Have fun and best of luck! PHOTO: Moon Colony wins the Penn Mile at Penn National (c) Adrianna Lynch