Scully's Derby Top 10

Some will say it’s never too early to talk Kentucky Derby but for many Thoroughbred racing enthusiasts, the clock starts the first week of the New Year.

This is a time for new faces to emerge on the scene as we wait for the top performers from last year to return to the races, and the build-up to the main event is half the fun.

I will recap each week’s action in my Kentucky Derby Report at brisnet.com and provide a weekly top 10 list with comments on the TwinSpires.com blog.

The Kentucky Derby is 16 weeks from this Saturday.

1. Dortmund – Massive chestnut made career debut in November and may have been scratching the surface in three juvenile appearances – easy to envision this raw talent evolving into a more formidable presence. A runaway winner in first two outings, the Bob Baffert-trained colt gained valuable seasoning while stepping up to face stakes rivals in the Los Alamitos Futurity (G1), gutting out a narrow victory after a ridiculously wide trip, and his BRIS Speed and Pace numbers are solid so far, with the potential to increase significantly. The exciting son of Big Brown returned to worktab on January 4.
2. Carpe Diem –Giant’s Causeway colt appears capable of great heights. He impressively captured his first two starts on the front end, including a 6 ¼-length win in the Breeders’ Futurity (G1) at Keeneland, and came running late to record a non-threatening second as the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile favorite. That experience figures to benefit him and the chestnut heads a deep Todd Pletcher roster.
3. American Pharoah – Missed the Breeders’ Cup due to an injury but is recovering nicely, according to reports, for Baffert. He merits serious respect based upon his two-year-old form, posting dominant Grade 1 wins in the Del Mar Futurity and FrontRunner, and the Pioneerof the Nile colt will bring dangerous speed to the table.
4. Mr. Z – Made eight starts, including seven stakes appearances, at age two and is being pointed toward four prep races before the Kentucky Derby, beginning with the January 19 Smarty Jones at Oaklawn Park. Other trainers may believe in a light regimen, opting for only two starts from November to the first Saturday in May, but D. Wayne Lukas has forgotten more than many of his contemporaries will ever know. The Hall of Famer is going after a fifth Kentucky Derby win and could get there with this son of Kentucky Derby-winning sire Malibu Moon. The well-built chestnut is only a maiden winner, but he placed in five stakes attempts and was hitting his best stride at the end of 2014 – he could really come on at age three.
5. Texas Red – Overlooked at 13-1 in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, he put it all together in stunning fashion, rallying last to first to score by a widening 6 ½-length margin. His deep closing style isn’t preferable, and the bay colt still has something to prove given the way the front-runners collapsed last time, but the improving youngster remains a promising prospect. His BRIS Speed ratings increased in all five starts last season, including a commendable 101 for Juvenile, and the son of Afleet Alex should relish longer distances with his pedigree.
6. Upstart – New York-bred won his first two starts over state-bred rivals, including the Funny Cide in which he registered a 106 BRIS Speed rating (the top figure by a stakes-winning juvenile of 2014), and then displayed fine class finishing second in the Champagne and third in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. Out of a mare by a Belmont Stakes winner, he figures to keep improving as a son of the A.P. Indy sire Flatter, whose offspring tend to get better with age, and it’s easy to admire his tactical speed, registering triple-digit BRIS E1 and E2 Pace ratings in his last two outings. Isn’t getting much attention (53-1 in Pool 1 of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager) but I’ve got the dark bay ridgling tabbed as a very live contender.
7. El Kabeir – Opened the year with a convincing win in the January 3 Jerome at Aqueduct. I thought the Scat Daddy colt left a lot to be desired when stretching out to 1 1/16 miles in the Kentucky Jockey Club, nearly coughing up a clear lead after establishing soft early fraction, but the John Terranova charge finished up impressively in the Jerome, registering a career-best 101 BRIS Speed rating. Still have some doubts about his threshold for 1 ¼ miles – there’s plenty of speed on both sides of his pedigree – but he wouldn’t be the first to outrun such concerns.
8. Frosted – Thought he was best in the Remsen, traveling wide the entire way before finishing second, and the Tapit colt could have a huge upside for Kiaran McLaughlin. Loved the dose of stamina on his female side – his Grade 2-winning dam is by Deputy Minister and counts champion Midshipman as a half-brother – and the gray possesses excellent tactical speed.
9. Blofeld – Quality Road colt is unbeaten from three starts, concluding 2014 with a romping win in the muddy Nashua at Nashua, but was kept to one-turn races despite making his debut in August. He’s certainly a talented prospect for Pletcher and looking forward to seeing him try a route in 2015.
10. Imperia – Made a nice transition from turf to dirt, rallying to finish a head second in the Kentucky Jockey Club, and Medaglia d’Oro colt is out of the classy mare Cocoa Beach, who defeated Ginger Punch winning the 2008 Beldame before finishing second to Zenyatta in the Breeders’ Cup Ladies’ Classic. His plodding run style isn’t desirable, but the dark bay could still develop into a top-class performer.

Others – Firing Line ran big in all three starts last year, including a head second in the Los Alamitos Futurity, and just missed the cut. Eagle closed fast to finish a close third in the Kentucky Jockey Club, improving significantly from a Speed figure-perspective (95), and I’m looking forward to seeing what he has to offer at Fair Grounds this winter. Daredevil didn’t fire in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile but the speedster could make a significant impact in Kentucky Derby preps – 10 furlongs is the biggest question surrounding the talented colt. Ocho Ocho Ocho remained unbeaten with a narrow win in the $1 million Delta Jackpot, displaying plenty of fortitude after a pair of easy wins sprinting, but tough for me to envision him thriving at longer distances despite a route-oriented pedigree. The Great War, an Irish stakes winner on turf, recorded a commendable fourth when making his dirt and U.S. debut in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and has been transferred to Wesley Ward for a U.S. campaign. Ami’s Flatter caught the eye recording a fast-closing second in the January 3 Mucho Macho Man, his first stakes attempt and only second career start, and is eligible to improve significantly upon the highly-encouraging performance.