Sophomores look strong in 2019 Pan Zareta Stakes

Will a 3-year-old filly defeat her elders in Saturday’s $75,000 Pan Zareta Stakes at Fair Grounds? It’s certainly within the realm of possibility. The question is, which sophomore filly will get the job done?

The 3-year-olds #9 Change of Control (4-1) and #10 Play On (9-2) are two of the morning-line favorites in this 5 1/2-furlong turf dash, which attracted 11 entrants. Both are stakes winners, but they bring contrasting running styles to the equation, and the old saying “pace makes the race” could determine which filly fares best.

All things being equal, my choice would be Play On. Trained by Brad Cox, Play On recently returned from a six-month layoff to finish second in the November 30 Richard R. Scherer Memorial Stakes over this course and distance. Play On’s performance caught the eye, as she sprinted hard for the early lead and kicked away in the stretch before she was nailed in the final strides by heavy favorite and three-time graded stakes winner Hotshot Anna.

But there’s plenty of pace in the Pan Zareta field, and Play On has drawn wide in post 10. She’ll have to work hard to clear her pace rivals and save ground around the turn. Otherwise, she’s likely to be caught a few paths off the rail around the bend. Either scenario could leave her leg-weary in the final furlong.

That’s where Change of Control becomes an appealing alternative. This daughter of Fed Biz sprung a 35-1 upset in the five-furlong Mamzelle Stakes at Churchill Downs in June, which was her debut on grass. She has continued to compete admirably in turf sprints, and just two weeks ago she rallied to win an allowance race over this course and distance by 1 1/2 lengths.

A fast pace will be beneficial to Change of Control, who prefers to settle back and make one late run. With the right setup she can fly past her opponents in the homestretch and land in the Pan Zareta winner’s circle.

To cover for all pace possibilities, we’ll play an exacta using both Play On and Change of Control on top. Underneath we’ll add the logical contenders #6 May Lily (a late runner) and #8 Violent Times (a speedster who will be prominent in the early going).

$5 exacta: 9,10 with 6,8,9,10 ($30)

Good luck!