Spot plays for Keeneland: October 4-5, 2019

Friday, October 4 is opening day of the Keeneland fall meet, which means large, competitive fields and exciting, high-class races are just around the corner.

Looking for horses to bet across the board, or to feature prominently in exotic wagers like the trifecta or Pick 3? We’ve got you covered with four spot plays for opening week at Keeneland.

Friday, October 4

Race 8: Stoll Keenon Phoenix Stakes (G2)

There is a ton of speed entered in this six-furlong sprint, which could favor the chances of #5 Diamond Oops. The winner of the Smile Sprint Stakes (G3) over this distance at Gulfstream, Diamond Oops subsequently fired off a career-best 106 Brisnet speed figure when he finished second in the Alfred G. Vanderbilt Handicap (G1) at Saratoga. In the Vanderbilt, which was run in track-record time, Diamond Oops split next-out grade 1 winners Imperial Hint and Mitole. He is dropping in class for the Phoenix and should find plenty of pace to set up his late kick.

Saturday, October 5

Race 2: Allowance/optional claiming

#2 Whoa Nellie might be a 3-year-old facing older mares, but the daughter of Orb has shown flashes of talent for high-percentage trainer Larry Jones. She has already beaten older rivals twice this year in allowance company, including in a one-mile event July 14 at Ellis Park, where she cruised home in front by two lengths. The third-place finisher, Diamondcoat, came right back to win a similar race at Ellis.

Whoa Nellie fits well here in terms of Brisnet speed figures and signaled her readiness with a sharp, five-furlong workout September 26, when she breezed the distance in :59 2/5. She picks up the services of jockey Julien Leparoux, fresh off a strong meet at Churchill Downs, and looms as a threat to win right back.

Race 4: Maiden special weight

If he draws in off the also-eligible list, #13 Lucky Curlin really shouldn’t lose this 1 1/16-mile maiden race, even with the outside post. Trained by Mark Casse, Lucky Curlin has knocked heads with some serious young runners in his first three starts.

In his debut Lucky Curlin finished fourth behind By Your Side, Basin and Verb, all of whom returned to win or place in graded stakes races. In his second start, Lucky Curlin finished third behind Basin and the next-out maiden winner Three Technique, who is entered in the Champagne Stakes (G1) at Belmont. In his third and most recent start, Lucky Curlin finished third behind Enforceable, who will run in the Breeders’ Futurity (G1) later on Keeneland’s Saturday card.

Race 6: Woodford Stakes (G2)

The past performances note that #3 Imprimis was “hemmed in” and “willing” when he finished fourth in the Runhappy Turf Sprint Stakes (G3) on September 7 at Kentucky Downs, but this really doesn’t do justice to the trouble he encountered. Shuffled back off the pace early on, Imprimis never had a clear path down the homestretch, so there’s no telling how well he might have finished with a better trip.

Imprimis boasts a 7-for-11 record, and he ran a big race over this course and distance in the April 6 Shakertown Stakes (G2), where he won by a neck with a 100 Brisnet speed figure. The Runhappy Turf Sprint marked Imprimis’ first run since a trip to Royal Ascot in England, where he finished a decent sixth against high-class competition in the King’s Stand Stakes (G1). With a clean trip Saturday, Imprimis can bounce back to the winner’s circle.

Good luck!