Spot plays for the Kennedy Road Stakes and Bessarabian Stakes

November 22nd, 2019

Sprinters will take the stage at Woodbine this weekend. Colts and geldings will contest the $175,000 Kennedy Road Stakes (G2) on Saturday, while fillies and mares will shine in the $175,000 Bessarabian Stakes (G2) on Sunday.

At first glance the Bessarabian appears to be the more competitive event, but dig deeper and both races appear to offer good betting opportunities.

Let’s come up with a couple of spot plays for the weekend action.

November 23

Race 8: Kennedy Road Stakes (G2)

The 7-year-old Pink Lloyd is a win machine, with 21 victories from 27 starts, and one of his defeats shouldn’t really count. In the Bold Venture Stakes (G3) at Woodbine two months ago, Pink Lloyd opened his gate prematurely, then hesitated and didn’t break with the field. After he rallied to finish fourth, beaten just one length, he was declared a non-starter.

Although Pink Lloyd is otherwise 5-for-5 this year, it’s worth noting the majority of the defeats in his career have come at the end of his seasonal campaigns. He dropped two straight races at the end of both 2016 and 2018. This four-time Sovereign Award winner is a formidable presence on his best day, but he won’t offer any value in this six-furlong Tapeta dash.

#2 Extravagant Kid might be the horse to play. A capable turf sprinter, Extravagant Kid finished second in the six-furlong Highlander Stakes (G1) over the grass course at Woodbine this summer, a fine bit of form against classy competition.

Extravagant Kid rarely runs on synthetic tracks, but he has given Pink Lloyd a couple of stiff fights in the last two renewals of the Jacques Cartier Stakes (G3) over this course and distance. If Pink Lloyd fails to fire his best shot, Extravagant Kid is the logical alternative to spring the upset.

$20 to win on #2 Extravagant Kid

November 24

Race 8: Bessarabian Stakes (G2)

There are a dozen runners entered in this seven-furlong sprint for fillies and mares, but on paper it doesn’t appear to be the toughest race. #6 Xenobia is the only graded stakes winner in the field, and her signature victory came on grass in the 1 1/16-mile Athenia Stakes (G3) at Belmont Park. Can she successfully cut back in distance while racing over a synthetic track for the first time?

#12 Special Relativity is an appealing alternative to Xenobia. She ran third in the Ballerina Stakes (G1) on dirt at Saratoga and has placed in a couple stakes races over the Tapeta at Woodbine. Most recently Special Relativity rallied to finish second by less than a length in the six-furlong Ontario Fashion Stakes (G3). She’ll get another furlong to work with in the Bessarabian, but she is marooned in post 12 and could be set for a wide trip.

Perhaps the 3-year-old #7 Gamble’s Candy is worth a play. Victorious in three of her last four starts over the Woodbine Tapeta, Gamble’s Candy employed pace-pressing tactics to record a quick victory in the 6 1/2-furlong Ruling Angel Stakes last month. She is drawn well, has shown a clear affinity for Woodbine and races for the successful team of trainer Josie Carroll and jockey Luis Contreras. Together they’ve teamed up to win at a 20% rate over the last two months.

Let’s bet Gamble’s Candy and Special Relativity on top of an exacta, with Xenobia and #4 Heavenly Hill underneath.

$5 exacta: 7,12 with 4,6,7,12 ($30)

Good luck!

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