Stradivarius stands out in British Champions Long Distance Cup

As handicappers and bettors, we all like to play against favorites when possible and shoot for big payoffs with upset winners. But it’s hard to envision a scenario in which heavy favorite #8 Stradivarius loses Saturday’s 1 15/16-mile British Champions Long Distance Cup (G2) at .

How can you play against him? The John Gosden-trained son of Sea the Stars hasn’t been beaten in two years, and he has won 10 consecutive group 1 or group 2 races at 1 3/4 miles or longer. The expected soft ground at Ascot shouldn’t be an issue, considering he won this race comfortably last year over similar going. Nor should the distance be an issue, since Stradivarius is a two-time winner of the 2 1/2-mile Gold Cup (G1) at Ascot.

Even when he faces challenging circumstances, Stradivarius always finds a way to win. He is versatile and relentless under regular rider Frankie Dettori, who has a knack for unleashing Stradivarius’ late rally at precisely the right moment.

The only serious threat to Stradivarius’ supremacy might be #4 Kew Gardens, a stoutly bred son of Galileo conditioned by Aidan O’Brien. Kew Gardens has been repeatedly tried over middle distances throughout his career, but running long is his strong suit. His career-best performance came in the 1 13/16-mile St. Leger Stakes (G1) at Doncaster in 2018, when he prevailed by 2 1/4 lengths to become a British classic winner.

The St. Leger has been Kew Gardens’ longest race to date, but he should only improve while stretching out another furlong in the Long Distance Cup. The soft ground is the bigger question mark, since he has never run particularly well against group stakes company over that type of ground. This could be the key factor in determining whether Kew Gardens can challenge Stradivarius for supremacy. Stradivarius might not be a soft-ground freak, but at least he is proven over challenging ground.

If a longshot can get involved, #9 Withhold might be the one. The son of Champs Elysees is undefeated in four starts racing two miles or farther on grass, so his stamina isn’t a concern. He also posted a career-best 116 Racing Post Rating (just five pounds below Kew Gardens’ best) when he won a handicap race over good-to-soft ground at Newbury, so even though he is stepping up sharply in class, he fits well enough on paper and could squeeze into the exotics at a nice price.

Let’s play Stradivarius on top in the exacta and trifecta, while boxing Kew Gardens and Withhold underneath.

$12 exacta: 8 with 4 $8 exacta: 8 with 9 $6 trifecta: 8 with 4 with 9 $4 trifecta: 8 with 9 with 4

Good luck!