Tampa Bay Downs: Horses to play (or oppose) in the $92,713 Pick 5 carryover

Five-figure, non-jackpot Pick 5 carryovers don’t come along every day. That’s why we’re excited to see Tampa Bay Downs toss up a $92,713 Late Pick 5 carryover for Sunday’s card.

A challenging wager is on tap. Not including also-eligibles, the Pick 5 contains 44 entries, averaging 8.8 horses per race. The sequence gets underway in Race 5 at 2:10 p.m. ET.

Want to play along? We’ve gone through the Pick 5 to identify a logical single and a vulnerable favorite to build tickets around:

Best single: Race 8, #8 Fly the W (2-1)

It’s difficult to find a single in a sequence this competitive, but we’ll take our chances with Fly the W. The son of Ghostzapper hasn’t seriously factored in a couple of recent runs against tougher company over the Gulfstream Park Tapeta track, but watch out—his turf form is solid.

Indeed, Fly the W finished third in a pair of $32,000 allowance optional claimers at Tampa Bay Downs last year, including one in which he missed victory by just half a length. Fly the W’s strong turf form isn’t surprising when you consider how his half-brother, Caribou Club, has won four graded stakes on grass.

In terms of Brisnet Speed ratings, Fly the W is as consistent as they come—he’s posted eight straight figures in the 81-85 range. His Sunday rivals have generally been running slower, so Fly the W is the horse to beat on paper. Returning to the Tampa Bay Downs lawn might be all Fly the W needs to deliver a short-priced victory.

Vulnerable favorite: Race 6, #8 Commence (5-2)

There are reasons to like the stakes-experienced Commence, who is descending from allowance company into a $16,000 claimer for non-winners of two races lifetime. The class drop is an obvious positive, and the fact trainer Arnaud Delacour wins at a terrific 48% rate with first-time claimers is significant.

But Commence has only run once since May 2020, finishing seventh by more than 20 lengths in a 1 1/16-mile allowance on Jan. 14 at Tampa Bay Downs. The 62 Brisnet Speed rating he received looks a bit light against Sunday’s field, so Commence will need a form turnaround to deliver as the morning line favorite.

Good luck!