The Jury: Bets and fades for Mar. 5

The TwinSpires Jury, consisting of James Scully, Kellie Reilly, and Vance Hanson, are back with thoughts on an action-packed weekend that includes four Kentucky Derby (G1) preps, three Kentucky Oaks (G1) preps, and a variety of graded action for older horses on both dirt and turf.

Who is your best bet?

James Scully: #9 Red Danger (4-1) in the Palm Beach S. at Gulfstream Park. The late runner didn't receive the right setup in the Feb. 5 Kitten's Joy (G3), trailing behind a moderate pace along the backstretch, and offered a belated rally to finish a couple of lengths back in fifth. The top three were are all forwardly-placed last time, but the Palm Beach features more speed – five of the nine runners are exiting frontrunning performances. After they bunch up at the top of the stretch, Red Danger will finish fastest of all to win.

Kellie Reilly: Saturday's Honey Fox (G3) at Gulfstream Park marks the stakes debut of #9 In Italian (8-1), who has looked like a graded performer in embryo for Chad Brown. A 475,000-guineas Tattersalls yearling purchase on behalf of Peter Brant's White Birch Farm, the British import is arguably unlucky to have been beaten by a neck on debut. In Italian has rolled on the front end in her two subsequent starts, but her sharp turn of foot suggests she's not dependent upon the lead. The daughter of Dubawi, from an all-star Australian family, is one to follow on the class hike.

Vance Hanson: #4 Fearless (3-1) might be in a better position to turn the tables on Speaker's Corner in the Gulfstream Park Mile (G2) after running second to that rival in the Fred W. Hooper (G3). Breaking from the rail that day, Fearless found himself in an unusual positioning of trailing after the first call while Speaker's Corner enjoyed a much more favorable trip on the front end. Beaten only 1 1/4 lengths while conceding the winner six pounds, Fearless meets Speaker's Corner at equal weights this time and can be more formidable in this title defense if he can avoid another slow start.

Who is the horse to fade?

JS: #10 Tiz the Bomb (5-2) in the John Battaglia Memorial at Turfway Park. A classy turf performer and confirmed closer, Tiz the Bomb didn't return in the proper spot, the Feb. 5 Holy Bull (G3) at Gulfstream, but it was a surprise to see him give way so poorly in the stretch. That wasn't the consistent performer we witnessed last summer/fall, and while his best races came on turf, Tiz the Bomb broke his maiden by 14 lengths on the main track. The clunker raises serious concerns, and with little pace entered in the 1 1/16-mile Battaglia, Tiz the Bomb may leave himself too much to do at short odds.

KR: The morning-line favorite in Saturday's Davona Dale (G2), #3 Girl with a Dream (3-1), doesn't strike me as one looking for the step up to a mile. Even if she isn't softened up by a longshot pace rival, she's facing several intriguing opponents poised to pounce. Among them is #6 Cocktail Moments, who reverts to one turn after a sneaky third in the Untapable S. at Fair Grounds.

VH: Although the class of field in the Buena Vista (G3) at Santa Anita, I'm not convinced that morning-line favorite #10 Going to Vegas (3-1) is as effective going a mile. Like last year, when she finished fourth in this race, this comeback looks like more of a stepping stone toward longer races later in the meet and in the year. Nine-to-10 furlongs proved her sweet spot last term when taking three graded stakes, including the Rodeo Drive (G1).

What else is worth noting?

JS: I've been underwhelmed by the lower Brisnet Speed ratings earned by Kentucky Derby contenders over the last couple of months, and none of the starters in Saturday's Fountain of Youth (G2) has registered a triple-digit figure this year. That adds anticipation to the seasonal debuts of juvenile graded winners #9 High Oak and #6 Rattle N Roll. Last seen romping in October's Breeders' Futurity (G1), Rattle N Roll is more accomplished, and will be a shorter price in the Fountain of Youth, but late runners are at a severe disadvantage going 1 1/16 miles at Gulfstream. And with the April 9 Blue Grass (G1) being the main goal, Kenny McPeek won't have Rattle N Roll fully cranked. High Oak, who earned an excellent 97 Speed rating when posting a smashing win in the Saratoga Special (G2) last August but is unraced since exiting a fourth in the Hopeful (G1) with an injury, is more of a midpack stalker, and he needs to run well to prove he belongs at this level. Bill Mott, who opted for the Fountain of Youth over the one-turn Gotham (G3), isn't messing around, putting multiple five-furlong bullet works into High Oak, and the bay colt is eligible to outrun his 8-1 morning line odds.

KS: Gulfstream's interest on Saturday extends beyond the stakes action. Triple Crown winner Justify's half-brother, #7 Stage Raider, could kick off a productive four-year-old campaign in the eighth race, and a couple of seven-furlong maidens for sophomores have potential. The second race for fillies includes a few Kentucky Oaks nominees, and in the fourth, #2 Town Branch hopes to be an opening act for his full brother – #3 Speaker's Corner, the morning-line favorite in the Gulfstream Park Mile.

VH: I have a frustrating tendency to occasionally being ahead of the curve on some horses, backing them before they turn in a peak performance one or more starts later. One recent example was my selection of Cavalry Charge in a stakes at Fair Grounds in January in which he finished up the track, but followed up with a 35-1 shocker in a Grade 3. Needless to say, I didn't back him in the latter. This is my long-winded way of saying that I'll be interested to see the progression on Saturday of a pair of horses I endorsed on the Pegasus World Cup Turf card in late January. Both will be making their second starts off layoffs. #6 Gift List figures to be a shorter price this time around in the Honey Fox than she was in the Pegasus World Cup Filly and Mare Turf (G3), but #3 Glynn County figures much longer than 5-1 in the Mac Diarmida (G2) following a fifth-place run in the W.L. McKnight (G3).