The Jury: Bets and fades for Nov. 26

A plethora of stakes action at Aqueduct, Churchill Downs, Del Mar and elsewhere awaits fans on Saturday. A slimmed down assemblage of the TwinSpires Jury is back with their best plays for an intriguing day of racing.

What is your best bet?

Kellie Reilly: At her generous morning-line price, #7 Half Is Enough (15-1) has appeal in Saturday's Safely Kept S. at Laurel. The Michael Trombetta filly was competing in tough stakes at Belmont and Saratoga, notably finishing a close second to Hot Peppers in the Victory Ride (G3), before breaking through in the off-the-turf Glen Cove S. at Aqueduct. Half Is Enough won her lone start at this track back in May, and she reunites with Carol Cedeno who's 3-for-3 aboard her. As a daughter of the Tapit stallion Frosted and an Indian Charlie mare, she's bred on an emerging cross. Her pedigree suggests she'll cope with a seventh furlong here, and Half Is Enough stacks up well on Brisnet Prime Power (133.2) with favorites #9 Last Leaf (133.9) and #8 Divine Huntress (132.6).

Vance Hanson: #6 Mooney Love (12-1) is an interesting longshot in the Red Smith (G2) at Aqueduct on Saturday. The Team Valor color bearer made a winning U.S. debut at Saratoga in late July, making up a 10-length deficit from behind a slow pace to win by more than two lengths against entry-level allowance company. He was only eligible for that race because the purses he had been winning for in Italy and Germany were so low, but note he was a stakes winner in Germany in June and placed in the Gran Premio del Jockey Club (G2) in Italy in October 2021. He could be better than advertised here. 

Who is the horse to fade?

KR: As a fan of freshman sire Good Magic, whose progeny I'm following as part of the first-crop sires series on TwinSpires Edge, I have a rooting interest in #1 Curly Jack (3-1) in Saturday's Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) at Churchill Downs. And the Tom Amoss pupil makes a lot of sense on paper. Yet my suspicion is that he's not so much progressing, as mostly running the same sort of useful race, while several rivals have more upside. If so, a repeat of Curly Jack's workmanlike win in the Iroquois (G3) at this track and trip wouldn't be enough to beat the intriguing up-and-comers in this Road to the Kentucky Derby event. #5 Red Route One and #8 Instant Coffee were respectively third and fourth in the key Breeders' Futurity (G1), won by next-out Breeders' Cup star Forte from the exciting Loggins. Turf-to-dirt #6 Freedom Trail and well-bred maiden romper #9 Cyclone Mischief bring the flashy factor, although they too have questions to answer in this spot. Suffice it to say that this looks hotter than the Iroquois.

VH: Although he ran a great race at Del Mar when second in last year's Hollywood Derby (G1), #1 Santin (3-1) might find the 1 1/16-mile distance of Saturday's Seabiscuit H. (G2) slightly on the short side. In a race with enough pace elements, he figures to sit a great trip just off the speed, but his form this year has been inconsistent and perhaps a bit overrated. On the latter point, the two highlights of his campaign this year occurred over the new Churchill turf course, which a lot of horses simply didn't handle. Kudos to him for doing so and earning multiple Grade 1 wins, but expect the local contingent to be far more effective here than they were in Kentucky.

What else is worth noting?

KR: Saturday's "Stars of Tomorrow II" program at Churchill Downs will offer most of the implications for this weekend's Pool 2 of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager, but keep an eye on the stakes action at Aqueduct and Woodbine. While #10 General Jim (7-2) sticks to turf in Aqueduct's Central Park S., trainer Shug McGaughey has left the door open to trying him back on dirt in the future. Thus the Into Mischief colt is an individual interest in Pool 2. Among his rivals on Saturday are #2 Bat Flip (9-2), a son of Good Magic who's thrived on turf, and #9 Let's Go Big Blue (4-1), who adds blinkers after a pair of slightly frustrating stakes losses.

Also Saturday at Woodbine, #5 Hal (9-5) bids to justify his inclusion in Pool 2 in the Grey (G3), where he could have a fight on his hands. At this writing, it's unknown which of the cross-entered Mark Casse fillies will take on the boys here, but I'd be fascinated by #6 Forever Dixie (5-2), who was reportedly compromised by track bias when runner-up in the Glorious Song S. Her dam, Dixie Strike, beat males in the classic Prince of Wales S. in 2012. Another with potential is Saffie Joseph shipper #4 Bluebirds Over (7-2), a well-named son of English Channel.

VH: As noted by Kellie earlier, the Kentucky Jockey Club is a potentially tough race for morning line favorite Curly Jack. Our selection is #8 Instant Coffee (5-2), who only missed third by a head in the Breeders' Futurity (G1) in what his second lifetime start for trainer Brad Cox. It was certainly no disgrace losing by a wide margin to presumptive division champion Forte in that spot, and Instant Coffee can flatter the form of that Keeneland feature by showing some nominal progress under the Twin Spires.