Three-year-olds with chances in the Breeders’ Cup

McKinzie earned a 112 BRIS Speed rating when taking the Pennsylvania Derby (G1) on September 22 (c) Kathleen O'Leary/Horsephotos.com

by Scott Shapiro

When it comes to three-year-olds facing their elders at the Breeders’ Cup, my colleague James Scully pointed out last year that the younger generation is often not well represented at Thoroughbred racing’s World Championships.

This lack of quantity played a major role in seeing just three sophomores cross the wire first in 2015 and 2016, and is also greatly responsible for the dip to just two in 2017 when Wuheida (Filly & Mare Turf) and Battle of Midway (Dirt Mile) were the only two three-year-olds to win at Del Mar.

They will be outnumbered again this year at Churchill Downs, but here is a look at the three-year-olds in with a significant chance after pre-entries were released on Wednesday morning (listed by race order):

Brisnet.com Breeders’ Cup handicapping reports

FILLY & MARE SPRINT

Dream Tree put forth a huge effort in her first race off a seven-month layoff for trainer Bob Baffert. Her 4 1/4-length score in the Prioress (G2) stamped the daughter of Uncle Mo as one of the major dangers to likely favorite Marley’s Freedom. If she can replicate her 103 BRIS Speed rating from the Prioress on the first Saturday in November, she should be right there in the end.

Mia Mischief ran two taxing races at Saratoga this summer, finishing second in both the Prioress and Test Stakes (G1). Her success over the Churchill Downs main track (4-2-2-0) is encouraging, but she will need to put forth a career-best run to beat this group.

Dream Pauline (also-eligible) has done nothing wrong in two career starts, but she has been unable to stay healthy. Her lack of experience is a major concern in this spot.

TURF SPRINT

World of Trouble is a perfect two-for-two since moving from dirt to turf. The son of Kantharos must be respected off the 107 BRIS Speed figure he earned in the Allied Forces Stakes at Belmont Park on September 8. He is the lone American three-year-old pre-entered.

This event has yet to be won by a European-based runner since its inception in 2008, but Havana Grey and Lost Treasure are pre-entered in hopes of becoming the first horse to do so.

DIRT MILE

Promises Fulfilled is cross-entered with a first preference to the Sprint, but if trainer Dale Romans opts for the Dirt Mile, the chestnut colt is one of the main threats to upset likely heavy favorite Catalina Cruiser. The son of Shackleford has tremendous early speed and has illustrated a desire to win, evidenced by three consecutive graded stakes victories dating back to July 28.

Firenze Fire comes off a neck win in the Gallant Bob (G3) at Parx Racing. His best races have come over a one-turn mile configuration, but an underneath finish is likely best-case scenario for the Jason Servis trainee.

FILLY & MARE TURF

Paved is the lone three-year-old from the States pre-entered and the daughter of Quality Road appears overmatched in this 1 3/8-mile event over the sod despite a strong runner-up finish to Vasilika in the Rodeo Drive (G1).

Athena, Magic Wand, Magical, Princess Yaiza and Wild Illusion give Europe several chances to beat the older fillies and mares though.

SPRINT

Imperial Hint and Roy H look to be a tier above the rest of the competition in the TwinSpires Sprint, but if the aforementioned Promises Fulfilled is entered in this six-furlong dash, a gate-to-wire win is well within the range of outcomes.