Tips for handicapping the Royal Lodge Stakes

In recent years, the Royal Lodge (G2) at Newmarket in England hasn’t been a particularly “trendy” race.

All types of horses have won this 1-mile turf test for 2-year-olds — experienced group stakes veterans, lightly raced up-and-comers, British locals, Irish raiders, etc.

Bettors who use history in their handicapping will be hard-pressed to find any firm trends pointing toward the most likely winner of this European Road to the Kentucky Derby prep race.

That said, it might not be the worst strategy to simply bet on Aidan O’Brien and hope for the best. The acclaimed Irish trainer has won the Royal Lodge seven times since 1999, including the last two renewals, and he’ll seek a record-equaling eighth win Saturday with the promising #4 Ontario (7-2).

A son of superstar stallion Galileo, out of the Fastnet Rock mare Timbuktu, Ontario is bred to be a classy runner, and he has already displayed a high level of form against quality competition.

A maiden winner racing 1 1/16 miles at Galway in his third start, Ontario recently cut back to 7 furlongs for the Futurity (G2) at the Curragh, where he finished third by a length and earned a competitive 106 Racing Post Rating.

The stretch out to a mile in the Royal Lodge should suit Ontario just fine, and he’ll pick up the services of star jockey Ryan Moore, who has partnered with O’Brien to win a seemingly endless number of group stakes races through the years.

Victory isn’t a shoo-in for Ontario. He will face several quality rivals in the Royal Lodge, including Stonehenge S. winner #1 Cobh (5-2) and the undefeated Acomb (G3) victor #2 Gear Up (3-1). The improving Flying Scotsman S. winner #3 New Mandate (4-1, with popular jockey Frankie Dettori in the saddle) and recent debut winner #5 Pleasant Man (5-1) likewise warrant respect.

It’s tough to count anyone out of the mix in this competitive race.

But we’ll keep the percentages on our side and favor O’Brien to secure an eighth Royal Lodge.

Let’s key the bay colt in the top two slots of the trifecta, with Cobh, Gear Up, and New Mandate in the remaining slots.

$2 trifecta: 4 with 1,2,3 with 1,2,3 ($12)
$2 trifecta: 1,2,3 with 4 with 1,2,3 ($12)
Total: $24

Good luck!