Trainers to watch (and wager on) at Saratoga

With the 2019 Saratoga summer meet opening July 11, it’s time to formulate our plan of attack for handicapping the multitude of high-quality races.

Determining which trainers to bet under which circumstances is a good place to start. After analyzing five years of Saratoga trainer statistics available through StatsMaster, I’ve compiled a list of trainers to watch (and wager on) during the Saratoga meet. With a bit of luck, they'll generate hefty profits this summer.

• Looking for longshots? Gary Contessa is your man. Since 2014 Contessa has sent out 14 winners at 8-1 or higher, three more than runners-up Bill Mott and George Weaver. Four of Contessa's winners came last year, when his longshot runners generated a +27% ROI. But 12 of his 14 longshot winners came on dirt, so if you’re looking for longshots on turf, Weaver (nine longshot grass winners) and Mott (eight longshot winners on the turf) have been better bets.
• When it comes to first-time starters, the tide has turned and is now the dominant conditioner. In 2018 Brown went 9-for-39 (23%) with horses making their debuts, including seven 2-year-old winners. , long the leading trainer of juveniles at Saratoga, had a tougher season, going just 1-for-27 with his first-time starters (all 2-year-olds).
• Setting aside his first-time starters, Pletcher remains a force in dirt routes. Over the last two years, he’s gone 17-for-59 (29%) in dirt routes. Jimmy Jerkens is another trainer to watch under these conditions. In 2018 his dirt-route runners went 5-for-11 (45%).
• He doesn’t ship horses to Saratoga very often, but Hall of Fame trainer has been almost unstoppable at the Spa. Since 2016 Baffert has gone 8-for-16 (50%), generating a massive +123% ROI. All of his victories came in graded stakes races.
• Among trainers with 100 or more starters at Saratoga since 2016, D. Wayne Lukas boasts the highest ROI, with his 10 winners from 126 starters generating profits of +38%. If a hefty winning percentage is what you’re after, check out Jason Servis, who has conditioned 29 winners from 111 starters, good for a 26% strike rate and a +8% ROI.
• Speaking of Servis, when he claims a horse and runs it back at Saratoga, watch out. Since 2016 Servis has compiled a 9-for-18 (50%) record with new acquisitions at Saratoga, generating a +81% ROI.
• A quietly successful trainer at the 2018 Saratoga meet was Anthony Quartarolo, who went 5-for-15 (33%) to post a hefty +104% ROI.
• WhenWeaver sends out a favorite, you know they’re probably a good bet. Since 2014 Weaver has gone 21-for-46 (46%) with favorites, a strike rate so impressive that betting all of Weaver’s favored runners would have generated a +30% ROI. Yet even these numbers aren’t quite as impressive as those generated by Anthony Dutrow (9-for-17, +53% ROI) and Leah Gyarmati (7-for-8, +156% ROI).

Good luck!