TwinSpires.com Louisiana Derby BRIS Speed Rating Report

Saturday’s $1 million TwinSpires.com Louisiana Derby (G2) starts the final round of major prep races for the 2019 Kentucky Derby. One of seven races awarding points on a 100-40-20-10 scale in the Road to the Kentucky Derby series, the Louisiana Derby drew a field of 11 including War of Will, who will attempt to become the third horse to sweep the Fair Grounds Triple this century after capturing the Lecomte (G3) and Risen Star (G2) at the New Orleans track. Todd Pletcher leads all trainer with four wins in the centerpiece event and ships a top contender in Spinoff, who will make his first appearance in a qualifier after romping by 11 lengths in a Tampa Bay Downs allowance. Sueno and Bankit, the runner-up and fifth-placer from the Southwest (G3) at Oaklawn Park, add further intrigue. And the four horses who finished immediately behind War of Will in the Risen Star – Country House-Roiland-Hog Creek Hustle-Limonite – will also return for the 1 1/8-mile Louisiana Derby. Before we analyze the BRIS Speed ratings for this year’s field, let’s take a look at the numbers for the previous 10 winners. Here are the last two BRIS Speed ratings entering the race:

Horse		BRIS Speed
Noble Indy		96
		95
Girvin		98
		86
Gun Runner		97
		92
International Star		97
		94
Vicar’s in Trouble		92
		88
Revolutionary		96
		103
Hero of Order		94
		94
Pants on Fire		89
		92
Mission Impazible		96
		102
Friesan Fire		100
		97

Analysis: The last four winners, and six of the last seven, posted BRIS Speed ratings in the mid-to-upper 90s in the final prep. Pants on Fire (89) and Vicar’s in Trouble (92) did not run fast and Friesan Fire (100) recorded the lone triple-digit figure in the last prep. The last five winners brought improving numbers into the race. Revolutionary and Mission Impazible recorded triple-digit Speed ratings in the penultimate start and Hero of Order paired up. Pants on Fire (92-89) shows the only disappointing pattern. Here are the last two BRIS Speed ratings for this year’s field (listed in post position order):

Horse		BRIS Speed
ROILAND		91
		83
LEMNISCATE		84
		94
LIMONITE		87
		92
SUENO		93
		87
BY MY STANDARDS		90
		80
WAR OF WILL		96
		94
MR. MONEY		86
		92
COUNTRY HOUSE		93
		91
BANKIT		88
		85
SPINOFF		93
		89
HOG CREEK HUSTLE		89
		90

Analysis: War of Will easily tops the field with a 96 BRIS Speed rating from the February 16 Risen Star, three points better than the next-best figure. He’s clearly the one to beat from a Speed rating perspective. Country House, Sueno and Spinoff all earned a 93, the only other contestants to post a last-out number in the mid-90s. By My Standards (80-90) and Roiland (83-91) are in the vicinity with improving numbers. Improvement is needed for Bankit (88), Hog Creek Hustle (89), Lemniscate (84), Limonite (87) and Mr. Money (86) to challenge.