Upset candidates to consider in the Prince of Wales Stakes

A classic race on a Tuesday? It might seem unusual, but July 23 is the day Fort Erie racetrack will run the $400,000 Prince of Wales Stakes, the second leg of the Canadian Triple Crown.

Although the Prince of Wales has attracted the top four finishers from the June 29 Queen’s Plate Stakes, the first leg of the three-race series, there’s no guarantee the order of finish will remain the same. Whereas the Queen’s Plate was held over 1 1/4 miles on the Woodbine Tapeta track, the Prince of Wales will be held over 1 3/16 miles on dirt.

That’s not to say the Queen’s Plate winner #1 One Bad Boy can’t repeat in the Prince of Wales. The speedy son of Twirling Candy prevailed by 3 1/2 lengths in the Queen’s Plate, where he led from start to finish and drew away down the lane. He looms as the lone frontrunner on paper, and his dirt form at Santa Anita last winter wasn’t bad. He actually finished second in a maiden race behind eventual Arkansas Derby (G1) winner Omaha Beach.

But One Bad Boy did enjoy a favorable setup in the Queen’s Plate, where he waltzed along up front through slow fractions of :24.42, :49.52 and 1:14.18. Everything fell in his favor three weeks ago, and there’s no guarantee he’ll enjoy a similarly perfect trip in the Prince of Wales, especially while switching back to dirt.

Fortunately there are a couple of viable alternatives to consider. #3 Tone Broke finished third in the Queen’s Plate after he raced racing wide and tried to rally into One Bad Boy’s slow pace. That was a solid effort, but Tone Broke’s best performances have come on dirt, including a runner-up effort behind King for a Day in the Sir Barton Stakes at Pimlico two starts back.

An even more interesting contender is #5 Skywire, who endured a dreadful, traffic-filled trip on his way to an 11th-place finish in the Queen’s Plate. Draw a line through that effort, and Skywire’s form doesn’t look half bad. Two starts back he was compromised by a slow pace when he rallied to finish second in the Marine Stakes (G3) at Woodbine, and during the winter at Gulfstream Park, he won an optional-claiming allowance over the main track by six lengths.

Skywire has shown flashes of tactical speed in the past, so if he breaks alertly in the Prince of Wales, he could potentially take up a stalking position not far behind One Bad Boy. Trainer Mark Casse has won this race four times, including last year with Wonder Gadot, and I’m optimistic Tuesday is the day Skywire will finally get the setup he needs to thrive.

Let’s key Skywire and Tone Broke is a few trifectas while using One Bad Boy and the Queen’s Plate runner-up #2 Avie’s Flatter in the other slots.

$6 trifecta: 3,5 with 3,5 with 1 ($12) $6 trifecta: 3,5 with 1 with 3,5 ($12) $3 trifecta: 3,5 with 3,5 with 2 ($6)

Good luck!