Using Speed, Class, & Potter Stewart to Define a Great Performance

To most race fans, a great performance can be hard to define with words, but as Supreme Court Justice Potter Stewart said regarding obscenity, “I know when I see it.”

From a personal eye test perspective, Shared Belief winning the Pacific Classic Stakes at Del Mar was the single most breathtaking performance this year with honorable mentions going to Game On Dude’s Santa Anita Handicap and California Chrome’s Santa Anita Derby. Yes, it was a good year for Southern California.

But Brisnet.com does not watch races, it merely crunches their numbers and attempts to quantify them. Two of the more powerful tools are Speed and Class Ratings. Speed measures how fast a horse ran, and Class measures a horse’s performance relative to its competition in that race, and the numbers are computed separately.

The Speed and Class Ratings (along with a host of other proprietary data such as PRIME POWER and Pace Ratings) are available in the Brisnet.com Ultimate Past Performances that TwinSpires.com players get free when they wager.

I think a fair definition of performance of the year is the fastest race against the best competition and used the Brisned.com Speed and Class Ratings to find the first horse to cross certain thresholds.

This year it was Palace Malice who was the only horse with a Speed Rating of at least 110 who also registered a Class Rating of at least 125. So while Taris was faster (115 Speed Rating when winning the Lexus Raven Run Stakes), and Close Hatches may have beaten more accomplished runners (125.8 Class Rating when winning the Personal Ensign Stakes), Palace Malice was the one who best put it together.

Interestingly enough, Palace Malice’s 2014 New Orleans Handicap win looks to be the worst best performance in a single year for as long as Brisnet.com has been producing these numbers. No one has had a lower Speed Rating and only Rachel Alexandra’s Class Rating was lower (though she did earn a pair of 125+ Class Ratings during her Horse of the Year campaign, those wins both registered a 111 Speed Rating, so we called her Haskell the Performance of the Year as her 116 Speed Rating there was tops all season).

This is the first year Brisnet.com has declared a Performance of the Year, but the system for determining the “winner” makes it easy to figure out who would have won historically, so the below chart lists the performance of the year going back as far as we’ve produced the ratings (1990).

Some interesting notes:

1. This chart illustrates the importance of defeating open company especially in the scope of a Horse of the Year campaign, as only Rachel Alexanra and Point Given registered Performances of the Year in an age-restricted race (both went on to win Horse of the Year, though Rachel Alexandra did defeat her elders in the Woodward while Point Given only raced against three-year-olds in 2001).

2. The last time a Breeders’ Cup race appears was 2007, and this also happens to be the last time the Classic winner was named Horse of the Year. Both droughts look to continue this year.

3. Shirocco is the only horse to earn Performance of the Year on turf, though Kotashaan during his Horse of the Year campaign in 1993 was close.

4. Curlin is the only two-time winner, though Ghostzapper came close, as his lone start in 2005—a scintillating win in the Metropolitan Mile Handicap—ranked second behind the aforementioned Shirocco.

5. Big Drama and Preporant are the only Performance of the Year in a pure sprint race, though mile races are decently represented.

6. The only females to win Performance of the Year are Rachel Alexandra, Sharp Cat, and Inside Information.

7. The aforementioned Preporant is the only horse to earn Performance of the Year outside of the graded stakes program for his 14 ½-length victory in the Hudson Handicap.

Year	Horse	Race	Speed	Class
2014	Palace Malice	New Orleans Handicap	113	125.1
2013	Fort Larned	Stephen Foster Handicap	114	125.5
2012	Flat Out	Jockey Club Gold Cup	117	125.1
2011	Big Drama	Mr. Prospector Handicap	117	126.0
2010	Quality Road	Donn Handicap	116	126.2
2009	Rachel Alexandra	Haskell Invitational	116	124.7
2008	Curlin	Jockey Club Gold Cup	117	126.9
2007	Curlin	Breeders’ Cup Classic	121	129.3
2006	Invasor	Breeders’ Cup Classic	116	126.9
2005	Shirocco	Breeders’ Cup Turf	121	129.1
2004	Ghostzapper	Breeders’ Cup Classic	116	128.7
2003	Pleasantly Perfect	Breeders’ Cup Classic	117	128.6
2002	Congaree	Cigar Mile Handicap	118	126.0
2001	Point Given	Belmont Stakes	114	128.0
2000	Albert the Great	Jockey Club Gold Cup	117	125.6
1999	Cat Thief	Breeders’ Cup Classic	115	125.4
1998	Sharp Cat	Beldame Stakes	114	127.6
1997	Formal Gold	Woodward Stakes	117	128.4
1996	Star Standard	Pimlico Special Handicap	114	129.6
1995	Inside Information	Breeders’ Cup Distaff	118	127.0
1994	Cigar	NYRA Mile Handicap	117	125.5
1993	Preporant	Hudson Handicap	118	125.6
1992	Pleasant Tap	Jockey Club Gold Cup	116	126.4
1991	In Excess	Suburban Handicap	121	126.7
1990	Criminal Type	Metropolitan Mile H.	120	127.4