Why I'm betting Come Dancing in the Ballerina Stakes

Several accomplished female sprinters will square off in Saturday’s $500,000 Ballerina Stakes (G1) at Saratoga, but they’re all running for second behind the lightly raced 5-year-old #2 Come Dancing.

The daughter of Malibu Moon has shown significant talent in races at a mile or farther. In addition to a 6 3/4-length win in the Ruffian Stakes (G2), she has recorded runner-up efforts behind grade 1 winners Midnight Bisou and Marley’s Freedom in the Ogden Phipps Stakes (G1) and Go for Wand Handicap (G3), respectively.

But it was Come Dancing’s spectacular performance in the seven-furlong Distaff Handicap (G3) at Aqueduct in April that really caught my eye. Racing over the same distance as the Ballerina Stakes, Come Dancing carved out quick fractions over a very slow track, accelerated strongly down the homestretch and sprinted the final three furlongs in :35.63 to pull away and win by 7 3/4 lengths.

Come Dancing’s final time (1:22.31) produced a massive 114 Beyer speed figure, by far the highest posted by any filly or mare so far in 2019. Was it something of a fluke? Maybe. But since the Distaff Handicap marked Come Dancing’s lone run in a sprint race since August of 2018, it’s also possible she’s been a sprinter all along. The Ballerina, which offers a "Win and You're In" berth to the November 2 Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint (G1), could be just the spot for Come Dancing to seize command of a wide-open division.

Come Dancing has posted a sharp series of workouts at Saratoga in preparation for the Ballerina, so fitness shouldn’t be an issue. This month alone she’s gone a half-mile in :46 2/5 (fastest of the morning), five furlongs in :59 3/5 from the gate (fastest of the morning) and three furlongs in :35 3/5 (second-fastest of the morning). And while Come Dancing is an effective frontrunner, she has also demonstrated the ability to rally from a couple lengths off the pace, so she shouldn’t be bothered if #6 Minit to Stardom or #5 Mia Mischief seek the early lead.

I believe the cutback to seven furlongs will send Come Dancing into beast mode, so I’ll take a stand and key her on top in the trifecta. Underneath I’ll favor #4 Separationofpowers, winner of the grade 1 Test Stakes over this track and distance last summer, and #1 Special Relativity, who rallied into slow fractions to win the seven-furlong Shine Again Stakes at Saratoga last month. With an unbeaten record in four starts at Saratoga, including two wins at the current meet, it’s seems Special Relativity has a special affinity for this racing surface.

$2.50 trifecta: 2 with 1,4 with 1,4,5,6 ($15) $2.50 trifecta: 2 with 1,4,5,6 with 1,4 ($15)

Good luck!