Why I'm betting Newspaperofrecord in the Belmont Oaks

It’s safe to say trainer Chad Brown has been dominant in the $750,000 Belmont Oaks Invitational Stakes (G1) at Belmont Park.

Brown has won three of the first five editions of the Belmont Oaks (as well as the final two editions of its predecessor, the Garden City Stakes), and he swept the Oaks trifecta in 2017. When the 2019 Belmont Oaks is contested Saturday, there’s a good chance Brown will dominate the race yet again.

Brown trains three of the nine starters: #2 Newspaperofrecord, #5 Cafe Americano and #9 Cambier Parc. They’ve all shown flashes of serious talent, particularly Newspaperofrecord, who crushed the 2018 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (G1) by 6 3/4 lengths in gate-to-wire fashion.

Three of the five Belmont Oaks winners so far also won the Juvenile Fillies Turf, so from a historical perspective, Newspaperofrecord fits the profile. But she’s lost both her starts this season. She led into the stretch of the Edgewood Stakes (G3) at Churchill Downs and Wonder Again Stakes (G3) at Belmont, only to be caught and passed in the final furlongs.

Perhaps Newspaperofrecord hasn’t progressed this season, but I’m inclined to take an optimistic view of her performance in the Wonder Again. On that occasion Newspaperofrecord was rank early setting the pace, yet still managed to sprint the final three furlongs in :33.86 to finish second. Newspaperofrecord didn’t run poorly. She just got outkicked down the lane.

Newspaperofrecord’s greatest asset is her superior tactical speed, so you can argue setting a slow pace in the Wonder Again was not in her best interest. In terms of Brisnet pace ratings, Newspaperofrecord posted E1 and E2 figures of just 82 and 82, far below the E1 figures (102 and 108) and E2 figures (101 and 110) she posted in her stakes wins as a 2-year-old.

The presence of Japanese raider #7 Jodie could help Newspaperofrecord work out a more ideal trip in the Belmont Oaks. Jodie is a frontrunner who figures to get out in front and ensure an honest pace, which will give Newspaperofrecord both a rival to track and an opportunity to run faster early on. An honest pace might be all Newspaperofrecord needs to rebound. If she gets out near the front, relaxes through a solid pace and sucks the finishing speed out of her pursuers, it could be tough to run her down in the homestretch.

Let’s key Newspaperofrecord in the first two spots of the trifecta, while strongly emphasizing the Wonder Again winner Cambier Parc and the Edgewood Stakes winner #4 Concrete Rose underneath.

$6 trifecta: 2 with 4,9 with 4,9 ($12) $5 trifecta: 4,9 with 2 with 4,9 ($10) $2 trifecta: 2 with 4,9 with 1,5 ($8)

Good luck!