Why I'm betting Tom's d'Etat in the Woodward Stakes

Although #9 Tom’s d’Etat has never won a graded stakes race of any kind, he may have found the perfect spot to nab a signature Grade 1 victory in the $750,000 Woodward Stakes (G1), the feature race on the final Saturday of the 2019 Saratoga meet.

Tom’s d’Etat has long shown flashes of significant talent, and he’s knocked heads with some serious racehorses this year, most notably finishing second behind McKinzie in the Alysheba Stakes (G2) and third behind Seeking the Soul in the Stephen Foster Handicap (G2). With six triple-digit Brisnet speed figures from his last eight starts, Tom’s d’Etat certainly has the speed to compete at a high level.

But although Tom’s d’Etat has demonstrated his talent at racetracks throughout the country, he seems to have a special affinity for Saratoga. The son of Smart Strike is 3-for-3 over the Saratoga main track, and he looked great rallying from mid-pack to win the August 2 Alydar Stakes over the same 1 1/8-mile distance as the Woodward. He defeated a quality field (including next-out stakes winner Golden Brown) with ease while posting a 105 Brisnet speed figure.

Tom’s d’Etat’s tactical speed should come in handy on Saturday. There isn’t an abundance of pace in this nine-horse field, so Tom’s d’Etat should secure a comfortable outside stalking position while breaking from post nine. This could be particularly ideal if the inside turns out to be slowest part of the track, as was the case on Travers Day.

Another positive? Tom’s d’Etat won’t be facing the toughest field. There are some fine horses entered in the Woodward, but only two have won graded stakes races this year. Those are #3 Vino Rosso and #5 Preservationist, third and fourth in the Whitney Stakes (G1) at Saratoga four weeks ago, but both have questions to answer. Vino Rosso will race without blinkers for the first time since February 2018, while the delicate Preservationist must rebound from his disappointing Whitney performance, in which he aggressively set the pace before fading steadily down the lane.

#7 Yoshida won the Woodward last year with a big rally from off the pace, but he’s struggled to reproduce his best form since then while going 0-for-5. The good news is, he produced a strong rally to finish second in the Whitney while posting a 107 Brisnet speed figure, but now this inconsistent five-year-old must try to replicate that big effort while wheeling back four weeks later and tackling a field without much speed.

In short, I’m going to take a shot with the “now” horse Tom’s d’Etat, trusting his fine recent form and affinity for Saratoga to get the job done. I’ll bet him to win and key him on top of a trifecta while using Yoshida, Vino Rosso, Preservationist, and Alydar Stakes runner-up #8 Wooderson underneath:

$12 to win on #9 Tom’s d’Etat $1.50 trifecta: 9 with 3,5,7,8 with 3,5,7,8 ($18)

Good luck!