Wide draw shouldn't bother Avie's Flatter in Queen's Plate

When a top-ranked contender in a Thoroughbred race draws an outside post position, handicappers often unite in trumpeting the misfortune and warning other bettors of the disadvantageous wide trip that could be in store.

But there are some races where wide draws aren’t as detrimental as they might appear. Outside runners frequently excel in the Kentucky Derby (G1), because the large field and testing 1 1/4-mile distance combine to place a premium on clean trips. The same trend is evident in the $1 million Queen’s Plate at Woodbine, Canada’s equivalent to the Kentucky Derby.

The 2019 Queen’s Plate is scheduled for Saturday, and while reviewing recent editions of the race, I noted how seven of the last 16 horses to finish in the Queen’s Plate exacta did so while breaking from post 10 or wider. Given how the Queen’s Plate field size is typically in the low to mid-teens, it’s impressive how effective wide-drawn runners have been in the 1 1/4-mile test for Canadian-bred 3-year-olds.

That’s one reason why I feel no panic seeing race favorite #14 Avie’s Flatter draw the far outside post position. A wide but clean trip might be perfect for this stoutly bred colt, who should relish the distance of the Queen’s Plate, since his two grandsires both won the 1 1/2-mile Belmont Stakes (G1).

In terms of form lines, Avie’s Flatter offers two positives I like to see in a potential Queen’s Plate contender. He is undefeated in two starts over the Woodbine Tapeta track, a record that includes a rallying victory in the 1 1/8-mile Coronation Futurity in November. He has also proven himself at a high level on turf, where he won the Transylvania Stakes (G3) at Keeneland and came up just two lengths short in the American Turf Stakes (G2) at Churchill Downs. He doesn't need Canadian-bred company to excel—he can hold his own against open company.

Avie’s Flatter isn’t a frontrunning type, but he has enough speed to stay within a few lengths of the early leaders, which should be beneficial, because there isn’t a ton of pace in the Queen’s Plate field. He’s been training sharply at Woodbine in recent weeks, most notably when he breezed a bullet five furlongs in :58 flat June 16, and he’ll have the four-time Eclipse Award-winning jockey Javier Castellano in the saddle.

For all these reasons, I’ll make Avie’s Flatter my key horse in the Queen’s Plate Stakes, playing him for first and second place in the trifecta. Other contenders I’ll strongly consider including are #5 One Bad Boy and #7 Federal Law, the only clear frontrunners in this large field, as well as the Woodbine Oaks winner #1 Desert Ride, who will attempt to become the fifth filly in the last nine years to win the Queen’s Plate.

$1 trifecta: 14 with 1,5,7 with 1,4,5,7,10 ($12) $1 trifecta: 14 with 1,4,5,7,10 with 1,5,7 ($12) $1 trifecta: 1,5,7 with 14 with 1,4,5,7,10 ($12)

Total: $36

Good luck!