Woodbine: How to bet the Natalma Stakes

Sunday’s $250,000 Natalma (G1) at Woodbine is more than just a rich race for 2-year-old fillies. It’s also a “Win and You’re In” qualifier for the Nov. 6 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (G1).

The Natalma has long ranked as a key steppingstone toward the Breeders’ Cup, and a solid field has turned out.

Leading the charge are #5 Alda (9-5) and #4 Dreaming of Drew (2-1), who finished first and second in Woodbine’s 6 1/2-furlong Catch a Glimpse S. last month.

Splitting Alda and Dreaming of Drew is difficult. The former is a pure late runner who gained 3 1/2 lengths through the final furlong of the Catch a Glimpse to beat Dreaming of Drew by a nose. The latter has more tactical speed and arguably ran a better race in the Catch a Glimpse, when she tracked a fast pace but faltered in the final strides.

But Alda and Dreaming of Drew have never run farther than 6 1/2 furlongs, so the 1-mile distance of the Natalma is a question mark. Considering they are both daughters of sprinter/milers, it’s fair to wonder how far these speedy fillies want to run.

I’m keen to oppose the two favorites with #3 Sleek Lynx, a maiden conditioned by seven-time Natalma-winning trainer Mark Casse. A beautifully bred daughter of War Front, out of Canadian International (G1) winner Sarah Lynx, Sleek Lynx ran a deceptively strong race in her July 23 debut at Gulfstream Park.

At a mile on turf, Sleek Lynx boldly swept to the front around the far turn, but raced greenly down the stretch and ultimately lost by a half-length to Director’s Cut. The winner came back to finish a strong second in the Sharp Susan S. at Gulfstream.

The experience of a race should help Sleek Lynx run more professionally in the Natalma, and post 3 sets up the potential for a ground-saving trip under jockey Rafael Hernandez, who strikes at a 26% rate when he teams up with Casse.

Let’s bet Sleek Lynx to win and key her in the top two slots of a trifecta. For the remaining slots, we’ll emphasize the favorites and #6 Lady Speightspeare (6-1), a gate-to-wire debut winner at 7 furlongs over the Woodbine turf course.

$12 to win on #3 Sleek Lynx
$1 trifecta: 3 with 4,5,6 with 2,4,5,6 ($9)
$1 trifecta: 4,5,6 with 3 with 2,4,5,6 ($9)
Total: $30

Good luck!