Woodbine: How to bet the Summer Stakes

From a Brisnet Speed rating perspective, it’s clear which horse is the runner to beat in Sunday’s $250,000 Summer (G1) at Woodbine.

The 1-mile race is a “Win and You’re In” qualifier for the Nov. 6 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf (G1), and most bettors figure to land on #4 Gretzky the Great (2-1) as the most likely winner.

Conditioned by Woodbine’s leading trainer Mark Casse, who has won the Summer three times since 2013, Gretzky the Great has compiled a 2-for-3 record sprinting and appears to have a bright future.

Gretzky the Great was particularly impressive in the 6 1/2-furlong Soaring Free S. on Aug. 23 at Woodbine. After he tracked the early pace, Gretzky the Great rallied gamely in the final strides to prevail by a neck in 1:13.83, and earned a 92 Brisnet Speed rating that tops Sunday’s field.

As a son of Kentucky Derby (G1) winner Nyquist, out of a mare by Preakness (G1) winner Bernardini, Gretzky the Great is bred to relish the stretch out to a mile. He has trained strongly since the Soaring Free, most notably blazed a bullet 5 furlongs in :59 flat, and should be tough to defeat with his combination of tactical speed and tractability.

#3 Ready to Repeat (9-2), who rallied to finish third in the Catch a Glimpse, is a logical contender to hit the board. But even bigger dangers might be #5 American Monarch (5-2) and #2 Secret Potion (3-1), who were separated by a half-length when they finished first and second in a 1 1/16-mile maiden race at Saratoga.

Of the pair, American Monarch has more upside. Trainer Bill Mott is an infrequent winner with first-time starters, but American Monarch fired off a big effort in his debut. American Monarch settled in fourth while Secret Potion carved out pedestrian fractions, and he rallied with determination down the homestretch to spring a 7-1 upset.

He should be sharper in his second start, and the son of American Pharoah will be ridden Sunday by Woodbine’s leading jockey, Justin Stein. If the pace is quick, American Monarch can come running late to vie for victory.

Let’s box Gretzky the Great and American Monarch in the exacta, then key them in a pair of trifecta tickets.

$3 exacta: 4,5 with 4,5 ($6)
$2 trifecta: 4,5 with 4,5 with 2,3,7 ($12)
$2 trifecta: 4,5 with 2,3,7 with 4,5 ($12)
Total: $30

Good luck!