Woodbine: Looking for value in the Breeders’ Stakes

Although 10 talented, Canadian-bred 3-year-olds have been entered in Saturday’s $400,000 Breeders’ S. at Woodbine, the vast majority of bettors will focus on one runner — #8 Mighty Heart.

The even-money favorite on the morning line, Mighty Heart has emerged as a division standout, after he rolled to easy victories in the Queen’s Plate S. and Prince of Wales S., the first two legs of the Canadian Triple Crown.

If the one-eyed wonder can add the Breeders’ S. to his glowing résumé, he’ll become the first horse since Wando in 2003 to complete the elusive, three-race sweep.

But is Mighty Heart worth betting at such a short price?

The son of Dramedy has improved by leaps and bounds under the care of trainer Josie Carroll, but he’ll switch to turf for the Breeders’ S., and there is no guarantee he’ll relish the change. Mighty Heart finished 11th in his only previous run on grass, so even though he has handled Tapeta and dirt just fine, there may be limitations to Mighty Heart’s versatility.

If Mighty Heart falters, who can spring the upset? #9 Belichick (7-2) and #3 Clayton (6-1) are logical choices, after they finished second in the Queen’s Plate and Prince of Wales, respectively, but I’m more intrigued by the newcomer #5 English Conqueror (12-1).

As a son of 2007 Breeders’ Cup Turf (G1) winner English Channel (already the sire of 2017 Breeders’ S. winner Channel Maker), English Conqueror is bred to relish 1 1/2 miles on turf. He certainly displayed an affinity for grass in a 1 1/16-mile maiden race Sept. 19 at Woodbine, where he finished fast to prevail in a four-horse photo finish.

English Conqueror is improving at the right time and enters the Breeders’ S. fresh, compared to Mighty Heart, who will run his third race in six weeks. At 12-1, I’m keen to take a shot with English Conqueror on top of all my tickets.

Underneath, I’ll play Mighty Heart, but I won’t rely on him to hit the board. Instead, I’ll key proven turf winners #11 Told It All (12-1) and #12 Muskoka Giant (20-1) for second and third, with the hope to squeeze another longshot (or two) into the trifecta.

$20 to win on #5 English Conqueror
40-cent trifecta: 5 with 11,12 with 3,7,8,9,11,12 ($4)
60-cent trifecta: 5 with 3,7,8,9,11,12 with 11,12 ($6)
Total: $30

Good luck!