Woodbine: Stakes plays for the Overskate and Princess Elizabeth

Picks and plays on a $50 budget for the Saturday stakes races at Woodbine.

Race 8: Overskate S. (4:44 p.m. ET)

I’m a bit surprised to see #5 Royal Wedding (20-1) listed at such high odds in this 7 1/2-furlong turf event for Ontario-sired runners.

She is a filly against males, and the distance might be a hair shorter than she prefers, but you can’t knock the competition Royal Wedding has faced in recent starts.

During the summer, Royal Wedding finished second in an allowance, behind Rideforthecause (next-out winner of the Grade 2 Canadian), and fourth in the Eternal Search S., behind Court Return (subsequent runner-up by a neck in the Grade 1 E. P. Taylor).

Royal Wedding sandwiched those defeats between a couple allowance wins, and while she faltered in the Sept. 26 Belle Mahone S., I’ll draw a line through that effort, since she was racing on Tapeta.

A return to turf should trigger a rebound for Royal Wedding, who has enough tactical speed to stay involved from the outset. In her allowance victory two starts back, she tracked fast fractions of :22.64, :44.47, and 1:08.58, then pounced to the front.

I’m optimistic she’ll outrun expectations at a big price, so let’s bet Royal Wedding to win and place.

$8 to win on #5 Royal Wedding
$12 to place on #5 Royal Wedding
Total: $20

Race 9: Princess Elizabeth S. (5:15 p.m. ET)

#4 Dreaming of Drew (7-5) loom as a clear favorite, after she finished second in the Catch a Glimpse S. and fourth in the Natalma (G1) on turf.

The daughter of Speightster raced a bit greenly in the latter race and will add blinkers for the Princess Elizabeth, which sets the stage for a more professional effort. The return to Tapeta — the surface over which she broke her maiden by six lengths — could also trigger improvement.

Still, 7-5 is a short price, and I wonder if #6 Curlin’s Catch (3-1) might have just as a strong a chance. Sold for $430,000 earlier this year, Curlin’s Catch is a stoutly bred daughter of Curlin, out of the A.P. Indy mare Catch the Thrill, who won the 2015 Princess Elizabeth decisively.

The 1 1/16-mile distance of the Princess Elizabeth should be well within reach for Curlin’s Catch, who finished second in her debut against males in an open maiden race at Woodbine. Facing fellow Canadian-bred fillies in the Princess Elizabeth should be a more manageable task, and Curlin’s Catch will retain the services of high-percentage jockey Rafael Hernandez, a 32% winner when he teams up with trainer Mark Casse.

Let's bet Curlin's Catch to win and play her over Dreaming of Drew in a straight exacta.

$22 to win on #6 Curlin’s Catch
$8 exacta: 6 with 4
Total: $30

Good luck!