The Jury: Bets and fades for Nov. 12-13

Like the national open stakes schedule on this first post-Breeders' Cup weekend, the TwinSpires Jury has a slimmed-down look this week. James Scully and Vance Hanson opine with their best opinions on a weekend that includes the 2022 Claiming Crown at Churchill Downs.

What is your best bet?

James Scully: #2 Divine Leader in Saturday's ninth race at Churchill Downs, the $125,000 Claiming Crown Rapid Transit. The five-year-old gelding ran well in a couple of starts under the Twin Spires early in the spring meet, including a romping win at 6 1/2 furlongs, and Divine Leader came back from a four-month freshening with a strong showing at Keeneland four weeks ago, finishing a head second in a solid starter allowance field. He will move forward in the second start back, showing good speed from the start with Edgar Morales, and Divine Leader won his lone attempt over an off track (which is no surprise given his wet-track breeding). The chestnut is listed at an attractive 8-1 on the morning line.

Vance Hanson: One of the leading contenders in Saturday's Smart Halo S. at Laurel is Godolphin homebred #5 Twice as Sweet (7-2), who was most recently a distant second best to Key of Life in an Oct. 7 allowance at Keeneland. That rival went on to turn in another dominating performance in the Myrtlewood S. at Keeneland, so there is no shame in her having fallen short against one of the more capable juvenile filly sprinters in the country. The Smart Halo field are hardly pushovers, but Twice as Sweet should appreciate the light class relief.

Who is the horse to fade?

JS: #5 Intrepid Heart brings declining Brisnet Speed ratings and a tendency to finish second into the 10th race, the $175,000 Claiming Crown Jewel. And the 1 1/8-mile trip doesn't look like his best distance. I'll try to beat the 5-2 morning line favorite, utilizing a pair of projected double-digit longshots, Digital and Tiz Rye Time, in all multi-race wagers.

VH: #10 Sibelius (5-2) was outrun for both the lead and a pace-pressing position when favored in a modest renewal of the Phoenix (G2) at Keeneland last month, which occurred after two big wins at Saratoga and Pimlico. While certainly capable of rebounding in Sunday's Bet On Sunshine S. at Churchill Downs, he's had a rather long season already and concedes experience over a track a number of others in the field have won over. He simply looks an underlay from this viewpoint.

What else is worth noting?

JS: A stakes-quality field is set for Sunday's seventh race at Churchill, a $134,000 conditioned allowance, and Run Classic is eligible to be shorter than his early 2-1 price following a pair of sharp sprints wins. Off 18 months before returning in mid-September, the four-year-old colt broke his maiden over 8 1/2 furlongs early in his career, but Run Classic may prefer one-turn distances as an older horse. The stalker faces a field lacking true speed, and #5 Eleven Central (10-1) will try to take advantage. The improving son of Into Mischief relishes two-turn distances, earning a second front-running win from the last three starts when defeating allowance foes at Churchill last out, and Eleven Central is proven over any conditions. The Paulo Lobo-trained gelding should show speed from the gate with Geraldo Corrales.

VH: Saturday's fourth race at Hawthorne, an entry-level allowance over one mile on the turf, has an interesting candidate in #1 Ultimate Irony (6-1) for the potent combo of trainer Larry Rivelli and jockey Jareth Loveberry. In his debut at the level last out, Ultimate Irony made a belated rally from well back to finish fourth after a rough trip. Although he only beat lesser N3L types two back, this isn't the strongest field and he enters in some of the best form of his career for a barn that scooped him for $16,000 in early August.