140th Preakness Stakes PPs and Analysis
The Preakness (G1) features a rematch of the top three Kentucky Derby (G1) finishers (American Pharoah, Firing Line, and Dortmund) and similar to the first leg of the Triple Crown, post positions figure to dictate tactics.
Here are the Brisnet Daily Selections and Brisnet PPs for the 140th Preakness Stakes:
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13th PIM 1 3/16m Grade I 3yo, Purse: $1,500,000. ( 6:18)/ 5:18/ 4:18/ 3:18 Exacta, 50 cent Trifecta & Daily Double (races 13-14) / 10 cent Superfecta |
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| # | Horse | ML | Comments | |
| 1 |
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4/5 | Has reeled off five wins in a row with four of those victories coming versus Grade 1 competition. His biggest career win, of course, came last out in the Kentucky Derby (G1) just two weeks ago in an effort where he broke from post position 15, stalked the pace early, and finished well late to claim the victory by a length, giving trainer Bob Baffert his fourth Derby winner over the course of his Hall of Fame career. Today, he will be looking for his sixth Preakness S. (G1) winner and he appears to have the perfect one-two punch to pursue this quest with American Pharoh getting the nod to be the one most likely to make it a reality. One of the things most impressive about American Pharoh is that each of his four Grade 1 victories has come at four different tracks and over two different surfaces. All indications are that he is handling the Pimlico strip excellently as well. Trainer Bob Baffert wins with 28% of his runners next out after winning their start prior and 24% of the graded stakes races he has a runner in. Victor Espinoza, who guided WAR EMBLEM to victory here in 2002 and CALIFORNIA CHROME in 2014, is the regular rider and gets the call again today. He wins 23% of the route races he has a mount in and he has combined with Baffert for a 71% win rate over the last 60 days. This one tops the field in BRIS Prime Power by over four points and is a close second with his BRIS Class rating. | |
| 2 |
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7/2 | Entered the Kentucky Derby (G1) exactly as his sire BIG BROWN did – undefeated. Unlike his sire though, he did not leave that way but he put in an impressive effort nonetheless as he took the lead out of the gate before fading a bit in the stretch to cross the wire in third, beaten by three lengths. There is no doubt regarding his record prior either as four of his six wins came versus graded competition with two of those being Grade 1. The most impressive win of his career came in his start prior to the Derby as he took the lead out of the gate and improved his position to cross the wire 4 1/4 lengths clear of the field while posting a 106 BRIS Speed rating. Trainer Bob Baffert wins with 30% of his runners shipping to another circuit and 26% of the route races he has a runner in. Martin Garcia, who guided LOOKIN AT LUCKY to victory here for Baffert in 2010, has been aboard for all seven career starts and gets the call again today. He wins 17% of the route races he has a mount in and has combined with Baffert for a 15% win rate over the last 60 days. Dortmund is second in BRIS Prime Power and possesses the third best BRIS Class rating. This one possesses a nice early turn of foot and if he is allowed to dictate the pace early, they may not catch him late. | |
| 8 |
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4/1 | Finished just behind Dortmund in back to back graded starts in December and February but turned the tables on his rival last out in the Kentucky Derby (G1) in an effort where he pressed the pace early, edged ahead, and then lacked the needed kick late, crossing the wire in second, beaten by only a length. The colt was dominating in the start prior as he vied for the lead early before taking command on his way to an easy 14 length victory in the Sunland Derby (G3). This one has yet to finish worse than second in six career starts which include two trips to the winner’s circle. Trainer Simon Callaghan wins with 14% of his runners shipping to another circuit and he will have three time Preakness winning jockey Gary Stevens in the irons who most recently guided OXBOW to victory here in 2013 for trainer D. Wayne Lukas. Stevens wins 18% of the route races he has a mount in. Firing Line possesses the best BRIS Class rating and is third with his BRIS Prime Power rating. | |
| 4 |
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15/1 | Has yet to visit the winner’s circle while facing graded competition with his best finish coming in the Bluegrass S. (G1) at Keeneland in which he attempted to rally from off the pace but proved no match for CARPE DIEM late and crossed the wire in second, beaten by three lengths. The colt ran surprisingly well last out in the Kentucky Derby (G1) as he stalked the pace early and was the victim of some bumping and was steadied before crossing the wire in fifth, beaten by 6 1/2 lengths. A clean trip today could make him a player in this spot and trainer Mark Casse wins 13% of the graded stakes races he has a runner in. In addition, he wins with 17% of his runners shipping to another circuit and an equal percentage of the route races he has a runner in. Julien Leparoux gets the call and he has combined with the conditioner for a 17% win rate over the last 60 days. He wins 15% of the route races he has a mount in. | |