2024 King George VI & Queen Elizabeth: A 10-1 play for Breeders’ Cup WAYI at Ascot

Saturday’s King George VI & Queen Elizabeth (G1) at Ascot serves as a “win and you’re in” for the Breeders’ Cup Turf (G1), so it’s fitting that the past two Turf heroes clash in the 1 1/2-mile midsummer highlight. 

Reigning Turf star #1 Auguste Rodin (6-5) is heavily favored to follow up on his recent victory here in the Prince of Wales’s S. (G1) during the Royal meeting. #7 Rebel’s Romance (9-2), who captured the 2022 Turf but did not defend his crown last year, has been padding his bankroll by plundering riches in the Middle East and Hong Kong.

Adding piquancy to the showdown, the two principals represent rival global empires. In the Aidan O’Brien-trained Auguste Rodin and Charlie Appleby’s Rebel’s Romance, racing fans are treated to a new chapter in the Coolmore vs. Godolphin saga.

Yet the King George isn’t a two-horse contest, even on paper. Juddmonte’s #8 Bluestocking (9-2), in the form of her life for trainer Ralph Beckett, seeks to continue the good run of distaffers in this race. 

Although you can make cases for a few trading at double digits, I can’t resist the price on #5 Luxembourg (10-1), a world-class performer who’s lurking in the shadow of stablemate Auguste Rodin. 

King George VI & Queen Elizabeth (G1) - Race 5 (10:40 a.m. ET)

Ascot’s good-to-firm ground should boost Auguste Rodin’s hopes of atoning for his demoralizing flameout here a year ago. Still, he’s a short price for a horse trying to add another major prize on the heels of Royal Ascot. Can he hit successive peaks, or does he prefer more time to build back up again?

Luxembourg was himself once the darling of Ballydoyle as an unbeaten Group 1-winning juvenile and leading 2022 classic hopeful. Although his sophomore season was blighted by a setback, the son of Camelot managed to win the Irish Champion (G1) and finished a better-than-appears seventh in the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe (G1) despite reinjuring himself. 

With a career trajectory reminiscent of Ballydoyle money-spinner St Nicholas Abbey, Luxembourg always promised to develop into a flagship older horse. He made good on that promise for much of 2023, most notably winning the Tattersalls Gold Cup (G1), nearly upstaging Auguste Rodin (to whom he was giving 6 pounds) in the Irish Champion, and missing by just a head to Hong Kong legend Romantic Warrior in the Hong Kong Cup (G1). 

Luxembourg was only fourth in last year’s King George, but he still outperformed the dreadfully disappointing Auguste Rodin. Note that was Luxembourg’s fourth start of a pretty busy late spring/summer campaign. My suspicion is that he was a bit over the top by then, and he roared back in the fall after a freshener.

Thus I take it as a sizable hint that Luxembourg has been deployed differently this term. After a fruitless Middle East swing, he was back on song with a frontrunning coup in the May 31 Coronation Cup (G1) at Epsom. Remarkably, the Coronation Cup was just his third attempt at this 1 1/2-mile trip, following the 2022 Arc and last summer’s King George. 

My longstanding hypothesis is that Luxembourg is at heart a 1 1/2-mile operator whose cruising speed and class have helped him in his 1 1/4-mile ventures. If so, he’s overpriced for a horse of his caliber – at arguably his optimal distance – with ample spacing between races. 

St Nicholas Abbey twice finished third in the King George at a fraction of Luxembourg’s likely odds, going off at 7-2 in 2011 and 5-1 in 2012. If the parallel holds, Luxembourg will place Saturday and generate value in the exotics. Considering that St Nicholas Abbey was up against the likes of Danedream and Nathaniel, one might also wonder if Luxembourg can improve upon his results against this field. 

The counterargument is that Luxembourg’s tactical speed could be used as part of the pace setup in support of Auguste Rodin. But he wasn’t sacrificed in such a way last year, when he was tucked just behind the Ballydoyle rabbits on the rail. 

Although O’Brien sends just one pacemaker this time, in the shape of #4 Hans Andersen, my instinct is that Luxembourg is charting his own destiny. 

O’Brien commented that they won’t make the mistake of holding Auguste Rodin too far back, reinforcing the idea that Hans Andersen is there to set a sensible, even pace without going overboard. Luxembourg can naturally find himself in a forward stalking spot with Wayne Lordan, and when he’s on his game, he’s a tough customer to pass. 

By centering a wagering strategy around Luxembourg’s factoring in the top three, we’ll have a reasonable chance of better returns even if the market leaders perform up to billing.