Betting the Rebel Stakes Day early Pick 5 at Oaklawn Park

The 24-hour delay to Oaklawn Park's Rebel Stakes Day program spices up the Sunday racing offerings considerably, and the 12-race program is a blockbuster of stakes, allowances, and maidens. I'll get my investment on the card started early with a Pick 5 play on the first five races.

50-cent ticket: 3,6 with 8,10,11 with 1,2,11 with 3 with 1,5,7 = $27

Race 1: Maiden, 1 p.m. ET

Although the Steve Asmussen barn has been unusually cold in Hot Springs this winter, second-time starter #3 Clever Again (9-2) looks live despite coming off a 10-month layoff. The son of American Pharoah was precocious enough to contest a 4 1/2-furlong baby race at Keeneland last April, which he lost by a head after dueling for the lead all the way down the Headley Course. The winner was the filly Dreamaway, who subsequently won the Colleen S. at Monmouth Park.

Clever Again has a tall task stretching out to 1 1/16 miles off the bench, but could be fit enough to do it after a couple recent bullet works at Fair Grounds.

#6 Baobob (7-2), third in his debut in early December over a mile for Brad Cox, was beaten a mere two lengths after stalking a pedestrian pace. He has a right to move forward second out while adding Lasix.

Race 2: Allowance, 1:31 p.m. ET

#10 Sitka (7-2) made a notable first impression for new trainer Matt Williams, just missing by a nose as a 14-1 chance at this level on Jan. 25. Both he and #8 Breslau (15-1) have already succeeded at passing their first allowance condition at tracks with smaller purse structures; thus they're "over-qualified" relative to the race's ostensible conditions. Indeed, Breslau also passed the N2X condition way back in June 2023.

Breslau was likely in need of his comeback effort on Dec. 27, when he finished a troubled fourth. He's likely to move forward in his second start since early May. Another second-off-the-layoff candidate is #11 Red State (20-1), fourth in his comeback from an eight-month spell over the Gulfstream turf last month. The Mike Maker trainee has but three starts behind him and remains with upside.

Race 3: Allowance, 2:02 p.m. ET

#1 Ashburn Alley (2-1) was only beaten a nose by the stakes-placed Absinthe in a Jan. 18 allowance, her first appearance since her debut win at Aqueduct 15 months earlier. She can contend right back, albeit at a much lower price.

#2 Queen's Martini (9-2) endured a poor trip in the mud last time, but two back was beaten only a half-length in a higher-level Churchill Downs allowance. #11 Brooklynn Drew (15-1) made no impact when last seen in the Purple Martin S. here last March, but as a veteran of only three races remains with upside for a barn striking at a 21% clip here this winter.

Race 4: Carousel S., 2:31 p.m. ET

The single in this sequence is #3 Justique (5-2), who looked a different mare at Fair Grounds at the start of the year compared to the one we saw in Southern California earlier in her career. Debuting for new trainer Cherie DeVaux in a six-furlong allowance on Jan. 2, Justique showed far more tactical speed than usual and ultimately won for fun by more than three lengths.

This is a vastly tougher and quicker field, but the daughter of Justify has a touch of back class and should get another strong pace to chase.

Race 5: Maiden, 3:02 p.m. ET

Most eyes will be on first-time starter #7 Cornucopian (2-1), a $1.1 million son of Into Mischief who is a half-brother to multiple Grade 1 winner Guarana and other graded-level talent. Hailing from the Bob Baffert barn suppresses his price even more, but he can't be dismissed out of hand.

#5 Zero Sugar (15-1) is another debut runner that's worth a look, given he hails from the Cipriano Contreras barn which has done great work from a small sample of first-time starters. #1 Oy Gevald (9-2) was narrowly beaten on debut at Ellis Park last July and is arguably the one to watch for among those with prior experience.