Does the XFL have staying power?

To answer the question of whether the XFL can last, you must first forget whatever notion of success based on the NFL and college football.

Unlike the 2001 version of Vince McMahon’s XFL, the 2020 iteration has tempered its outlook. It isn’t meant to compete with the NFL—at least, not for now. This is spring football, a filler during a time when the pigskin is usually stored away, and the NBA, college basketball, and minor sports take the stage.

XFL week-to-week ratings

Glancing at the XFL’s initial ratings from Week 1 to Week 2, the league is already showing potential.

While the XFL of two decades ago achieved a surprisingly strong debut, with 15 million viewers, the poor grade of football resulted in a 52% ratings drop in Week 2. By the end of the season, viewership decreased by 85% of its Week 1 output.   

The new XFL—with its emphasis on quality football and rules changes—has retained a higher percentage of its audience from week to week. The first week may have only attracted 3.3 million viewers to ABC, but that topped a premier NCAA basketball matchup—Duke vs. North Carolina—the night before.

Each of the four XFL games in Week 1 topped all sports programming on television over the weekend, within the 18-49 age demographic. Viewership also grew in each individual game, from kickoff to conclusion, which indicates fans enjoyed the broadcast.

On the downside, just as before, the XFL experienced a ratings decline in Week 2, but the number only dropped 30% this time around. Week 2 also endured some competition from NASCAR’s Daytona 500.

The league still has a long way to go to compete with the NFL’s 16.5 million viewers per game, but as long as the XFL is meant to be a spring league, the comparison doesn’t matter all that much.

This is a time when networks struggle to find solid alternative options to NFL or college football programming, but the XFL is proving it can draw eyes to the TV and steal attention from the NBA and NHL.  

XFL attendance

Unlike the original XFL, the new league has infiltrated the larger sports markets. In 2001 the eight-team league housed clubs in Birmingham, Chicago, New York/New Jersey, Orlando, Las Vegas, Los Angeles, Memphis, and San Francisco.

In 2020 Los Angeles and New York still possess franchises, while Dallas, Houston, Seattle, Washington D.C., St. Louis, and Tampa Bay have jumped into the mix. According to league commissioner Oliver Luck (Andrew Luck’s father), attendance during Week 1 of the XFL averaged around 17,000 per stadium.

In the Seattle Dragons’ home opener in Week 2, nearly 30,000 fans filled Century Link Field, the home of the Seattle Seahawks. The St. Louis Battlehawks also enjoyed a sold-out crowd in their first game at the Dome at America’s Center.

What’s even more promising is overall XFL attendance rose by 6,427 in Week 2.

XFL betting handle

Football is already the most popular betting sport in the United States, which gives the XFL a leg up. It probably won’t ever generate the amount of handle the NFL does, but it has performed exponentially better than last season’s failed spring football experiment, the American Alliance of Football.

In Week 1 some sportsbooks reported the two XFL games played Saturday brought in roughly 20 times the handle that the first two AAF games did a year ago.

The growth of legal sports betting over the past year helps, but the XFL must be doing something right, based on the fact that handle increased 55% from Saturday to Sunday’s games in Week 1. Bet count also increased 31% across those two days.

The league’s new rules and push to speed up the game help keep the spread in play longer and make it far more difficult for oddsmakers to set the points total. This has bettors champing at the bit. The XFL has also encouraged its media partners to discuss sports betting during broadcasts.  

One sportsbook compared Week 1’s betting action to that of a good UFC card, while at BetAmerica, XFL handle in New Jersey in the past two weeks ranked fifth, behind college basketball, NBA, NHL, and English Premier League action.

XFL revenue

While sportsbooks are pulling in extra cash because of the revitalized league, it’ll be a while before McMahon sees any profit.

Back in 2018, ESPN reported the billionaire chairman and CEO of WWE expected to spend $500 million over the course of the XFL’s first three seasons. To kickstart his funding, he sold $100 million worth of WWE stock and fed it into his company, Alpha Entertainment.

That’s a hefty sum to foot as the sole owner of the XFL, and McMahon isn’t even expecting to recoup much of it until Year 4. The projected $375 million financial hit he’ll absorb is substantial, compared the $35 million loss WWE and NBC each incurred when the 2001 XFL was cancelled.

McMahon has a new plan this time around. The businessman’s goal is to sign a lucrative television contract before the XFL’s fourth season, which would make his investment worth the effort.

NBC may shy away from another joint venture, but FOX or CBS could come calling. It’s not out of the question, considering the league’s performance so far.

Can the XFL last?  

It’s too soon to say, but based on McMahon’s willingness to risk even more money for his reboot, you can expect the XFL to stick around until at least 2023.

Whether McMahon can convince a network to buy in on his league at the end of Year 3 is another story. But if the XFL continues to expand its fan base, with appealing television programming, social media buzz, and strong attendance, this brand of spring football could be mainstay for decades to come.

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