Grade 1 Alabama trends and field analysis

One of the oldest races for female Thoroughbreds in the U.S., the 144th running of the Grade 1 Alabama will feature eight three-year-old fillies at Saratoga on Saturday, Aug. 17.

With Kentucky Oaks (G1) heroine Thorpedo Anna opting to compete against males in the Aug. 24 Travers (G1), the top three-year-old female will be absent from the 2024 Alabama, making this year’s edition far more wide-open.

First run in 1872, the Alabama is named after owner and breeder William Cottrell of Mobile, Alabama, who requested the event be named after his home state rather than himself, who won the 1884 Kentucky Derby (G1) with Buchanan.

Since 1917, the race has been contested at 1 1/4 miles on the dirt but covered just a mile and a furlong in its inaugural running. Other distances of the Alabama include 1 1/16 miles and 1 5/16 miles, and the event has been held every year, with the exceptions of 1893-96, 1898-1900, and 1911-12.

Two-time Triple Crown-winning trainer Sunny Jim Fitzsimmons owns the record for most Alabama victories, with eight (1924, 1928, 1942, 1944, 1946, 1950, 1953, 1959). There is a three-way tie for the wins record among jockeys, with Jorge Velasquez, Jerry Bailey, and Mike Smith having visited the winner’s circle five times apiece.

Ten-year trends in the Alabama

Dating back to 2014, Todd Pletcher has won the Alabama more times than any other trainer, with three of his four victories in that span. Chad Brown and Kenny McPeek have recorded two wins over the last decade.

Every winning jockey in the last 10 years has celebrated multiple victories in the Alabama except for Tyler Gaffalione (2020), who can add a second win in the race this year with Golden Rod (G2) victress Intricate.

Jose Ortiz achieved all three of his Alabama scores in consecutive years, starting in 2017, and John Velazquez bagged two of his four wins since 2014.

Six post-time favorites have triumphed in the Alabama over the last decade, with 2015 champion two-year-old filly and 2016 champion three-year-old filly Songbird the shortest price at 0.20-1. The longest price to win since 2014 was 9-1 Eskimo Kisses (2018), followed by 7.10-1 Randomized (2023).

Now that we've looked at some of the recent Alabama trends, let's look at each runner in the 2024 field.

Alabama S. horse-by-horse analysis

Race 10, Alabama S. (G1), 1 1/4 miles, 3yo fillies (5:43 p.m. ET) 

#1 Intricate (6-1) – The Gun Runner filly got off to a hot start as a two-year-old with a 3 1/2-length maiden victory at second asking and a 5 1/4-length win over Thorpedo Anna in the 1 1/16-mile Golden Rod (G2) last November. 

Since then, she’s been on a four-loss streak and most recently placed a distant third to Thorpedo Anna in the Coaching Club American Oaks (G1). 

The Brendan Walsh trainee may improve in her third start off a layoff, and regular rider Tyler Gaffalione (20% winner this meet) will stay in the saddle.

#2 Chatalas (8-1) – Another Gun Runner daughter, Chatalas was last seen upsetting the Indiana Oaks (G3) by a head while making her lone start for Grant Forster. 

She’s back in the barn of Mark Glatt, an 18% winner in a second start off a layoff, and Frankie Dettori will regain the mount. He was aboard the filly when she was beaten a neck in the Blue Norther S. on Santa Anita’s turf and will make his first main-track start with Chatalas, who put in a bullet five-furlong workout Aug. 4 at Churchill Downs.

#3 Power Squeeze (9-2) – By Union Rags, the chestnut filly rode a four-win streak into the May 3 Kentucky Oaks, where she finished far back in sixth to Thorpedo Anna over a sloppy track. She came home third to the same rival in the 1 1/8-mile Acorn (G1) two back, then rebounded with a nose victory in the 1 1/16-mile Delaware Oaks (G3) last out while facing five rivals. 

Jorge Delgado is a 25% winner with horses who won their last race, and Javier Castellano will retain the mount.

#4 Just Basking (5-1) – The gray Arrogate filly made her stakes debut last out in the Iowa Oaks and pulled away to win by 4 3/4 lengths in the 1 1/16-mile test. 

Trainer Ian Wilkes is a 16% winner with horses coming off a win but just a 6% winner in graded stakes. Rider Chris Landeros is winning at a 21% clip paired with Wilkes the last two months.

#5 America’s Vow (20-1) – Just 2-for-10 for her career, the Constitution filly needed five starts to break her maiden, then finished third and seventh to Power Squeeze in her next two starts, both in stakes. 

She’s faced allowance company in her last three and earned a second career win last out racing 1 1/8 miles at the Spa. Junior Alvarado will pick up the mount and is winning at a 16% rate this meet.

#6 Miss Justify (6-1) – The Todd Pletcher trainee is 3-for-5 lifetime and rides a two-win streak ahead of the Alabama. She won the Wilton S. by a length last out when racing a mile and will retain rider Flavien Prat, a 19% winner this meet. 

The Justify filly can show early speed and clocked a career-best 98 Brisnet Speed figure last out.

#7 Candied (7-5) – Another from Pletcher’s barn, Candied won her first two career starts, including the Grade 1 Alcibiades, and was beaten just three-quarters of a length in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies (G1) to close out her two-year-old season. The late closer came home fourth in the Ashland (G1) next out and failed to earn enough points to make the main field of the Kentucky Oaks.

Returning off a two-month layoff, she won by more than four lengths two back in the Lady’s Secret S. at Monmouth before finishing second to Thorpedo Anna in the CCA Oaks. She may step forward third start off a layoff and will keep rider Manny Franco.

#8 Neon Icon (15-1) – Another daughter of Arrogate, Neon Icon romped to a 4 1/4-length win on debut at Keeneland, then dominated by 5 1/2 lengths in a 1 1/4-mile allowance over a wet fast track at Churchill on May 23. She made her stakes debut last out in the Indiana Oaks and broke awkwardly before stalking the pace in the two path and finishing fifth to Chatalas. 

She’ll regain rider Luis Saez, who won both mounts on Neon Icon, and the gray filly put in a fast five-furlong workout at Keeneland on Aug. 9. Rusty Arnold is a 16% winner with shippers and has a positive return on investment in graded stakes.