Grade 1  Breeders’ Futurity trends and field analysis

The 2025 Road to the Kentucky Derby (G1) will make a stop at Keeneland for the opening weekend of the fall meet when 11 juveniles compete in the $600,000 Breeders’ Futurity (G1) on Saturday. The winner of the 1 1/16-mile test will collect 10 points toward the Kentucky Derby leaderboard, plus a berth to the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) at Del Mar on Nov. 1.

Inaugurated in 1910 at the Kentucky Association track in Lexington, Kentucky, the Breeders’ Futurity has produced eight future Kentucky Derby winners: Black Gold (1924), Bubbling Over (1926), Clyde Van Dusen (1929), Johnstown (1939), Whirlaway (1941), Swale (1984), Alysheba (1987), and Street Sense (2007). Three of those — Johnstown, Triple Crown winner Whirlaway, and Swale — won both the Breeders’ Futurity and the Kentucky Derby.

Most recently, Two Phil’s finished seventh in the 2022 Breeders’ Futurity before coming home a one-length second to Mage in the 2023 Kentucky Derby. The last Breeders’ Futurity winner to place in the Kentucky Derby was Essential Quality, who was elevated to third in the 2021 Run for the Roses.

In all, 62 Breeders’ Futurity starters have competed in the fastest two minutes in sports, with an overall record of 62-3-7-5 on the first Saturday in May at Churchill Downs.

Hall of Fame trainer D. Wayne Lukas has the most victories in the Breeders’ Futurity, with six (1991, 1992, 1995, 1996, 1998, 2004). Don Brumfield is the winningest jockey, with five victories (1969, 1970, 1972, 1974, 1979).

Ten-year trends in Breeders’ Futurity

Over the last 10 years, Todd Pletcher has collected three of his four career Breeders’ Futurity wins. His first came in 2013 with We Miss Artie, followed by Carpe Diem in 2014, Forte in 2022, and Locked in 2023. Dale Romans has also visited the winner’s circle twice in the last decade and four times overall dating back to 2005.

Among jockeys, Jose Ortiz is the only to achieve multiple victories in the last decade. John Velazquez went back to back in 2013 and 2014 while paired with Pletcher, and he will have the mount in the 2024 edition of the race on longshot Filoso, a Chad Summers trainee. Jose Ortiz will also go for another win with 30-1 choice Ready for Peace, a debut maiden winner on the turf.

Five post-time favorites have crossed the wire first in the last 10 runnings of the Breeders’ Futurity, with Pletcher trainee Locked the shortest-priced winner at 0.76-1. The longest shot to win in the last decade was Knicks Go at 70-1 in 2018. The future Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile (G1) and Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1) hero began his career in the barn of Ben Colebrook before transferring to Brad Cox ahead of the 2022 season.

As for pedigree of the winners dating back to 2014, Giant’s Causeway sired two Breeders’ Futurity champs — Carpe Diem (2014) and Brody’s Cause (2015) — and he’s the damsire of 2017 victor Free Drop Billy. 

Now that we've glanced at some of the recent Breeders’ Futurity trends, let's explore each runner in the 2024 field.

Breeders’ Futurity horse-by-horse analysis

Race 9, Breeders’ Futurity (G1), 1 1/16 miles, 2yos (5:16 p.m. ET)

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#1 Ferocious (8-5) – The $1.3 million two-year-old purchase dominated on debut with a 7 3/4-length victory in a six-furlong maiden special weight over a muddy Saratoga track on Aug. 3. The Flatter colt returned in the seven-furlong Hopeful (G1), where he went off as the 0.65-1 favorite and finished a half-length second to unbeaten Chancer McPatrick. Trainer Gustavo Delgado is a 15% winner with horses making their first start at a route, and Luis Saez will pick up the mount. Ferocious put in a bullet five-furlong workout on Sept. 28 and will look to rally from off the pace on Saturday.

#2 Saratoga Cruiser (50-1) – By Catalina Cruiser, the two-year-old gelding won on debut in a one-mile maiden special weight at Horseshoe Indianapolis and posted a light 66 Brisnet Speed figure when closing late to beat seven rivals. Deshawn Parker will retain the mount on the Jeff Engler trainee, who will return off a 46-day layoff.

#3 Optical (30-1) – The City of Light son needed four starts to break his maiden and romped to a 14-length victory racing a mile last time out at Churchill Downs. Trainer Keith Desormeaux strikes 10% of the time with juveniles but just 4% of the time in graded stakes. James Graham will stay in the saddle.

#4 Handsome Pants (10-1) – The Daredevil colt dueled in the stretch before inching clear late to win by 1 1/2 lengths on debut in a 1 1/16-mile maiden special weight at Churchill Downs on Sept. 14. Trained by Kenny McPeek, last year’s Kentucky Derby winner, Handsome Pants is out of a Lemon Drop Kid mare who has produced multiple stakes winners. Brian Hernandez Jr. will retain the mount on the late runner.

#5 East Avenue (3-1) – The Medaglia d’Oro two-year-old posted an eight-length score in a six-furlong maiden special weight at Ellis Park on Aug. 24 and will stretch out to 8 1/2 furlongs in his second career start. Trainer Brendan Walsh is a 17% winner with horses coming off a maiden win, and Tyler Gaffalione will inherit the mount. He’s 30-8-4-1 the last week, and Walsh is a 15% winner first time at a route.

#6 Filoso (12-1) – The $210,000 yearling acquisition by City of Light rallied to finish fourth on debut at six furlongs, then stretched out to a mile and won by 3 1/2 lengths in a maiden special weight at Saratoga last out. Trainer Chad Summers is 0-for-17 with horses coming off a maiden win and an 8% winner in graded stakes (from a small sample size). John Velazquez will pick up the mount on the juvenile, who posted a sharp four-furlong workout on Sept. 25.

#7 Mesero (15-1) – The gray Not This Time colt beat a next-out winner on debut in a six-furlong maiden special weight over a sloppy Ellis Park track, then finished a distant fourth in the one-mile Iroquois (G3) last out. Trainer Dale Romans is a 21% winner with horses running their second route race, and Corey Lanerie will keep the mount. The $535,000 yearling purchase is a deep closer whose grandsire, Giant’s Causeway, has direct lineage to two of the last 10 Breeders’ Futurity winners.

#8 Big Boat (20-1) – Another late closer, the Nyquist juvenile clocked a 90 BRIS figure on debut when winning by 3 1/2 lengths in a six-furlong maiden special weight at Churchill on Sept. 12. Trainer Jimmy DiVito is a 24% winner with horses coming off a maiden win, and Cristian Torres will stay in the saddle.

#9 Tenacious Leader (8-1) – Another Not This Time son, the Todd Pletcher pupil won at second asking in a one-mile maiden special weight taken off the Saratoga turf, then made his first start on grass last out in the 1 1/16-mile With Anticipation (G3), where he was beaten a neck by a next-out winner. Florent Geroux will pick up the mount for regular rider Irad Ortiz Jr. Pletcher is a 23% winner with shippers and a 21% winner going from turf to dirt. Tenacious Leader’s 93 BRIS figure in his maiden win is one of the highest dirt figures among the field, and he has the pedigree to relish longer distances.

#10 Dapper Moon (9-2) – Trained by Dallas Stewart, the $130,000 two-year-old purchase rallied late to finish second in a six-furlong maiden special weight at Saratoga, then came home a five-length winner with a 93 BRIS figure in a seven-furlong maiden special weight at the same track. Stewart has posted an 8-4-2-0 record the last 14 days. Ricardo Santana Jr. will retain the mount.

#11 Ready for Peace (30-1) – By More Than Ready out of a War Front mare who has produced a stakes winner, the Nacho Correas pupil will try dirt for the first time after racing on turf in his first two starts. He won on debut in a one-mile maiden special weight at Colonial and clocked a 76 BRIS figure, then finished a four-length third in the one-mile Juvenile Mile S. at Kentucky Downs. Jose Ortiz picked up the mount last out and will return to ride today. Correas is a 19% winner in graded stakes but an 8% winner with two-year-olds.

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