Grade 1 Cotillion trends and field analysis

The top three-year-old female in the country, Thorpedo Anna will take on seven sophomore fillies on Saturday at Parx in the $1 million Cotillion (G1), her final prep ahead of the Breeders' Cup Distaff (G1).

First run in 1969 at Liberty Bell Park in Philadelphia, the Cotillion moved to Parx (then Keystone Racetrack) in 1975 and has attracted a number of notable horses, including Shuvee, Ashado, Havre de Grace, and Untapable.

Elevated to Grade 1 status in 2012, the Cotillion is contested over 1 1/16 miles and has been run annually, with exceptions in 1991 and 2020.

Hall of Fame trainer Steve Asmussen has won the Cotillion a record five times. His first trip to the winner's circle occurred in 2012 with My Miss Aurelia and his most recent victory came in 2022 with Society. In 2018, his filly Midnight Bisou triumphed under Mike Smith, the winningest jockey in the Cotillion, with four wins (2000, 2013, 2016, 2018).

In 2010, future Horse of the Year Havre de Grace set a track record for 1 1/16 miles when beating Blind Luck by a neck in the Cotillion with a final time of 1:40.93.

Ten-year trends in Cotillion

Asmussen earned four of his five Cotillion victories in the last decade. Jerry Hollendorfer achieved back-to-back titles in 2016 and 2017, and Larry Jones became a multiple winner in 2015 and 2019.

Three of Smith's four Cotillion successes also came in the last 10 runnings. The only other multiple winner among jockeys in that span is Florent Geroux, who guided I'm a Chatterbox in 2015 and Society in 2022. 

Since 2013, six post-time favorites have crossed the wire first, but 0.50-1 choice Monomoy Girl was disqualified and placed second for interference with Midnight Bisou in the stretch in 2018. The longest shot to win in the last 10 runnings is 7.80-1 Society in 2022, followed by 7.70-1 Street Band in 2019 and 5.30-1 It Tiz Well in 2017.

Now that we've looked at some of the recent Cotillion trends, let's examine each runner in the 2024 field.

Cotillion horse-by-horse analysis

Race 12, Cotillion (G1), 1 1/16 miles, 3yo fillies (5:20 p.m. ET)

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#1 Power Squeeze (4-1) – The Union Rags filly rides a two-win streak that includes a nose victory in the 1 1/16-mile Delaware Oaks (G3) and a head victory in the 1 1/4-mile Alabama (G1). She finished a 16-length sixth to Thorpedo Anna in the Kentucky Oaks over a sloppy Churchill Downs track on May 3, then came home a 6 3/4-length third to the same rival in the 1 1/8-mile Acorn (G1) three back. Trainer Jorge Delgado is a 22% winner in graded stakes, and Irad Ortiz Jr. will pick up the mount on the distance specialist, who's 2-for-2 from 8 1/2 furlongs. The rail post is also winning at a 22% clip this meet.

#2 Scalable (10-1) – The late runner by Speightstown narrowly beat today's rival Gun Song in the 1 1/16-mile Monmouth Oaks (G3) last out and will return off a nearly two-month layoff here for trainer Todd Pletcher. Paco Lopez, a 23% winner at Parx, will retain the mount on the filly, who's 5-2-1-0 from today's distance. Pletcher is a 22% winner off layoffs of 46 to 90 days, and he's a 23% winner with shippers. Scalable's last-out Brisnet Speed rating was a career-best 96, a huge jump from her 87 she earned when winning a 1 1/16-mile allowance optional claimer at Churchill on June 29.

#3 Tarifa (5-1) – The Bernardini filly is 4-for-7 lifetime but has fallen out of form recently, finishing an 18-length ninth in the Kentucky Oaks and a 2 1/4-length second in the seven-furlong Audubon Oaks. She'll stretch back out in distance today and is 3-for-3 at 1 1/16 miles. Her recent Speed figures are light compared to today's rivals, but she may step forward second start off the layoff. The Brad Cox trainee posted a sharp four-furlong workout on Sept. 15 and will regain rider Flavien Prat, who's 4-for-9 paired with Cox over the last two months.

#4 Everland (20-1) – The late closer is on a five-loss streak but just barely missed last out when a neck third as the favorite in a one-mile allowance optional claimer at Ellis Park. Trained by Eric Foster, the gray daughter of Arrogate will keep Luan Machado in the saddle and is a bit outclassed against this field.

#5 Sidamara (6-1) – Another Arrogate filly, the Bill Mott pupil owns two wins and two seconds from four career starts and was beaten a nose in the Delaware Oaks last out. Mott is a 19% winner off layoffs of 46 to 90 days and a 21% winner in graded stakes. Regular rider Jose Ortiz will retain the mount on the late runner, who recorded a 91 BRIS figure in her most recent start.

#6 Thorpedo Anna (4-5) – The Fast Anna filly took on the boys last out in the Travers (G1), where she finished a head second to Fierceness racing 1 1/4 miles. The Kenny McPeek trainee has been racing longer in her last four starts and will cut back to 1 1/16 miles, a distance from which she has a win and a second. The class of the field, Thorpedo Anna posted a 107 BRIS figure in her Travers placing and is returning off 28 days of rest here. Regular rider Brian Hernandez Jr. is up, and Thorpedo Anna looked sharp in her recent work at Saratoga.

#7 Gun Song (10-1) – The early pacesetter by Gun Runner was a gate-to-wire winner in the one-mile and 70-yard Cathryn Sophia S. at Parx on Aug. 24 with an 82 BRIS figure. Trainer Mark Hennig is a 12% winner with horses who won their last race, and John Velazquez will regain the mount; he won with Gun Song four back in the 1 1/8-mile Black-Eyed Susan (G2) at Pimlico. The chestnut filly has a win and a second from three tries at 1 1/16 miles and put in a sharp workout Sept. 13 at Belmont.

#8 Mystic Lake (12-1) – By Mo Town, the Saffie Joseph pupil has reached the winner's circle every other start in her last seven. She's coming off a 5 3/4-length win in the Charles Town Oaks (G2) and posted a 92 BRIS figure when racing seven furlongs. She'll stretch out to 1 1/16 miles for the second time in her career and will keep rider Mike Smith, a 30% winner with routes.