Grade 1 Haskell S. trends and field analysis

Monmouth Park will host the 57th running of the Haskell S. (G1) on Saturday, July 20, at the famed New Jersey racetrack, where eight three-year-olds will test their speed and stamina over 1 1/8 miles.

First run in 1968 as the Monmouth Invitational H., the Haskell is one of the premier races for sophomores held each season and has witnessed 11 victors go on to earn champion three-year-old colt or filly at year’s end. Five of them also went on to receive Horse of the Year honors — Holy Bull (1994), Point Given (2001), Rachel Alexandra (2009), American Pharoah (2015), and Authentic (2020).

Trainer Bob Baffert has won the Haskell a record nine times, beginning in 2001 with Point Given and most recently in 2020 with Authentic. The rider aboard Authentic, Mike Smith, holds the record for victories by a jockey, with four (1994, 1998, 2020, 2023). 

In 2013, multiple graded stakes winner Verrazano achieved the largest margin of victory in the Haskell when he romped to a 9 3/4-length win over six rivals, and in 2022 Brad Cox trainee Cyberknife clocked the fastest winning time for the event as he crossed the wire in 1:46.24.

Two fillies have also won the Haskell — the aforementioned Rachel Alexandra and champion three-year-old filly Serena’s Song, who triumphed in 17 graded stakes, including 11 Grade 1s, during her career.

Ten-year trends in Haskell S.

In the last decade, Baffert has celebrated three of his nine Haskell successes, while Cox has scored two victories, in 2021 and 2022. In that same time span, Florent Geroux (2021 and 2022) and Mike Smith (2020 and 2023) are the only jockeys to earn multiple wins.

Post-time favorites have crossed the wire first in five of the last 10 editions of the Haskell, but Hot Rod Charlie at 0.80-1 was disqualified to last for interference at the eighth pole during the 2021 running, with the DQ elevating Kentucky Derby (G1) winner Mandaloun to first. 

The longest shot to win the Haskell since 2014 is last year’s winner Geaux Rocket Ride at 12.70, followed by Girvin at 9.20-1 in 2017. The shortest price to reach the winner’s circle in the last decade was Triple Crown winner American Pharoah at odds of 0.10-1. 

Now that we've examined some of the recent Haskell S. trends, let's look at each runner in the 2024 field.

Haskell S. horse-by-horse analysis

Race 12, Haskell S. (G3), 1 1/8 miles, 3yos (5:45 p.m. ET)

#1 Dornoch (5-2) — The Good Magic colt attracted a ton of attention as a two-year-old as a full-brother to 2023 Kentucky Derby (G1) winner Mage and impressed in his graded stakes debut, winning the Remsen (G2) by a nose. He kicked off his three-year-old season with a victory in a scratch-depleted edition of the Fountain of Youth (G2) but struggled from there, finishing a distant fourth in the Blue Grass (G1) and 10th in the Kentucky Derby. Flying under the radar as a 17-1 longshot in the Belmont (G1), he pulled off a half-length win over today’s race rival Mindframe in a shortened edition of the Test of the Champion, which was run at 1 1/4 miles at Saratoga in 2024. His 106 Brisnet Speed figure in the effort is a career best, and he will look for a similar trip on Saturday either on the early lead or sitting just off of it. Danny Gargan is a 21% winner in graded stakes, and Luis Saez will retain the mount. Dornoch posted a sharp four-furlong workout at Saratoga July 13 and will seek his fifth win from nine career starts.

#2 Jasper’s Pride (30-1) — The New Jersey-bred gelding is 2-for-6 for his career, with a three-length win in a 5 1/2-furlong maiden special weight at Monmouth in May and a three-quarter-length victory in a six-furlong allowance optional claimer at the same track on June 8. Last out, the Chuck Spina trainee was a half-length third in a six-furlong allowance optional claimer for state-bred non-winners of two races. He’s never faced stakes company nor has he raced at a route distance.

#3 Tuscan Sky (9-2) — One of three for Todd Pletcher’s barn, the son of Vino Rosso is 3-for-4 lifetime and most recently triumphed in the 1 1/16-mile Pegasus S. by 6 3/4 lengths with a career-high 100 BRIS figure. His lone try at 1 1/8 miles resulted in a last-of-seven finish in the Wood Memorial (G2) at Aqueduct, but he may improve second start off the layoff and stretching back out in distance. For the second straight start, he’ll get Javier Castellano, a 25% winner to start the meet.

#4 Timberlake (8-1) — By Into Mischief, the Triple Crown nominee impressed in his second career start, when he graduated with a 9 1/4-length score in a seven-furlong maiden special weight at Ellis Park. Next out, he came home second to huge longshot Nutella Fella in the Hopeful (G1) at the Spa, then rebounded to win the one-mile Champagne (G1) by open lengths over a sloppy Aqueduct track. The colt finished fourth to Fierceness in his season finale, the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1), but bounced back to win the Rebel (G2) in his sophomore debut at Oaklawn. A fourth in the Arkansas Derby (G1) prevented Timberlake from earning enough points toward a spot in the Kentucky Derby field. He’ll now make his first start since March and has put in solid workouts at Churchill in the interim. Flavien Prat, who's 4-for-10 paired with Brad Cox the last two months, will ride.

#5 Fierceness (5-2) — The champion two-year-old colt has established a consistent win-loss pattern throughout his six-start career. The City of Light colt romped to an 11 1/4-length win on debut at Saratoga, then put in a dud in the Champagne, finishing 20 lengths back in seventh at Aqueduct last October. He bounced back with a 6 1/4-length tally in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, but was third in his sophomore season opener in the Holy Bull (G3). The Florida Derby (G1) saw him run away with a 13 1/2-length victory before he finished 15th as the favorite in the Kentucky Derby. Should he follow the pattern, a win would be in order in his next start. However, Fierceness is rumored as a potential scratch in the Haskell and could instead point toward the July 27 Jim Dandy (G2).

#6 Just Step On It (30-1) — By Accelerate, Just Step On It will stretch out to nine furlongs for the first time and may be best suited for a mile. His three lifetime victories have each come at a mile or a mile and 70 yards, and he does his best running when on the early lead. Trainer Louis Linder Jr. is off to a hot start at Monmouth, with an 11-3-0-1 record, and Florent Geroux, a two-time winner of the Haskell, will pick up the mount.

#7 Mindframe (9-5) — A $600,000 yearling purchase, the Todd Pletcher colt is half a length shy of an unbeaten 3-for-3 record. He dominated by 13 3/4 lengths on debut in a seven-furlong maiden special weight at Gulfstream Park, then won a 1 1/16-mile allowance optional claimer by 7 1/2 lengths on the Kentucky Derby undercard two back. For his third start, he jumped to graded stakes company in the Belmont and gained a small lead in the stretch before allowing Dornoch to re-rally and nab him at the wire. The Constitution colt has earned Brisnet Speed figures of 106, 97, and 105 in his three career starts and will be tough to beat with Irad Ortiz Jr. aboard.

#8 Sea Streak (20-1) — Another New Jersey-bred, Sea Streak has finished in the money in six of eight lifetime starts and recorded a 7 1/4-length win in the one-mile and 70-yard Long Branch S. two back at Monmouth. Last out, he came home fifth by 12 1/4 lengths in the Pegasus after pressing the early pace. His career-best 96 BRIS figure is light compared to a few rivals in today’s field, and he’ll need to step forward to pull off a massive upset for Eddie Owens Jr.