Grade 2 Jim Dandy S. trends and field analysis

Local Travers S. (G1) prep, the Grade 2 Jim Dandy, will present a rematch of Kentucky Derby (G1) favorite Fierceness and runner-up Sierra Leone on Saturday, July 27, at Saratoga.

The 61st running of the 1 1/8-mile event for three-year-olds also attracted Preakness (G1) hero Seize the Grey plus Ohio Derby (G3) victor Batten Down; the second-place finisher of that race, Gould’s Gold; and recent maiden winner Pony Express.

First held in 1964, the Jim Dandy will offer a purse of $500,000 and is named after former racehorse Jim Dandy, who upset Triple Crown winner Gallant Fox in the 1930 Travers as a 100-1 longshot.

Originally run at a mile, the 1971 edition was shortened to seven furlongs before the Jim Dandy S. permanently became a 1 1/8-mile route race in 1972.

The winningest trainer of the Jim Dandy is Todd Pletcher, with seven victories, beginning with his triumph in 2000 with Graeme Hall. Last year, he earned his seventh win with champion two-year-old colt Forte, owned by Repole Stable and St. Elias Stable, and will look to repeat this year with another juvenile champion from Repole in multiple Grade 1 winner Fierceness.

Pletcher celebrated a three-peat in the Jim Dandy from 2003 to 2005, with John Velazquez aboard all three winners. Velazquez is tied with two other jockeys for most victories (four) in the race. The other two are Eddie Maple (1981, 1982, 1984, 1986) and Jerry Bailey (1995, 2000, 2001, 2002).

Ten-year trends in Jim Dandy S.

Dating back to 2014, only one trainer has scored multiple victories in the Jim Dandy — Steve Asmussen (2018, 2022). As for jockeys, the Ortiz brothers (Irad and Jose) and Joel Rosario have earned two wins apiece in the last decade. 

Post-time favorites have won the last three editions of the Jim Dandy and short-priced winners have been common since 2014. Seven of the last 10 winners were sent off at odds of 2.30-1 or shorter, and two others were listed at 4.50-1 or 8.60-1 at post time. The longest shot of the last decade was 27-1 winner Laoban, whose only career win from nine starts was in the Jim Dandy.

Laoban also accomplished the fastest winning time of the last 10 years when he crossed the wire in 1:48.39. The overall speed record for the Jim Dandy at the distance of 1 1/8 miles is 1:47.26, clocked by 1996 Preakness champ Louis Quatorze in 1996.

Now that we've examined some of the recent Jim Dandy S. trends, let's look at each runner in the 2024 field.

Jim Dandy S. horse-by-horse analysis

Race 10, Jim Dandy S. (G2), 1 1/8 miles, 3yos (5:43 p.m. ET)

#1 Sierra Leone (1-1) — The lone closer in the field, Sierra Leone will look to snap a two-loss streak in which he was beaten a nose in the 1 1/4-mile Kentucky Derby (G1) and came home third by 1 1/2 lengths in the Belmont (G1), run at the same distance at Saratoga in June. The Chad Brown trainee owns a 3-2-1-0 record at today’s distance of 1 1/8 miles and will return off a layoff of 49 days after failing as the favorite in the Belmont. Flavien Prat, a 26% winner this meet, will retain the mount, and Brown is a 29% winner with beaten favorites. The two are also 13-5-2-0 when paired up over the last 14 days. 

#2 Seize the Grey (6-1) — The surprise Preakness (G1) winner tired to finish seventh of 10 in the Belmont last out and will cut back to 1 1/8 miles, a distance from which he’s 0-for-2. Trainer D. Wayne Lukas is 0-for-9 to start the Saratoga meet, and he has not won the Jim Dandy since 2001 with Scorpion. Seize the Grey has a win and a third from three starts at the Spa and broke his maiden here in his second career start in August of 2023. Lukas is a 10% winner in graded stakes, and regular rider Jaime Torres will stay in the saddle.

#3 Batten Down (5-1) — Recent Ohio Derby winner (G3) Batten Down will make his second start against graded stakes company and will look to extend his win streak to three. He graduated in his fourth career start when stretching out to 1 1/4 miles in a maiden special weight at Churchill Downs on April 30 before upsetting Kentucky Derby fourth-place finisher Catching Freedom in the Ohio Derby. Junior Alvarado will keep the mount and has two victories and a half-length third from three starts with Batten Down. Trainer Bill Mott is a 13% winner this meet and strikes at a 26% rate with horses that won their last race.

#4 Pony Express (20-1) — The early pacesetter by Gun Runner will make his fourth career start for John Sadler and just broke his maiden in his third career try with a nine-length romp in a 1 1/16-mile maiden special weight at Santa Anita. The $500K yearling purchase clocked a career-best 105 Brisnet Speed figure last out and will pick up rider Joel Rosario, a 22% winner with routes. Pony Express also posted a trio of sharp workouts in July and may step forward third start off the layoff.

#5 Gould’s Gold (15-1) — A longshot for Kenny McPeek, the Goldencents colt is 1-for-6 lifetime and was beaten a nose in the Sir Barton S. two back, then finished second to Batten Down in the Ohio Derby in late June. McPeek is a 15% winner with shippers, and Brian Hernandez Jr. will retain the mount. He’s 1-for-15 to start the meet but a 20% winner with routes. Gould’s Gold recorded a bullet four-furlong workout at Saratoga on July 20 but will need a career-best effort to best his rivals here.

#6 Fierceness (9-5) — The juvenile champion has a win and a third from three starts this season and has established a win-loss pattern over his six-start career. Two back, he dominated by 13 lengths in the Florida Derby (G1), then disappointed as the favorite in the Kentucky Derby, where he finished 15th of 20 on May 4. Trainer Todd Pletcher is an 18% winner at the Spa and a 22% winner with horses returning off a layoff of 46 to 90 days. John Velazquez is aboard and is winning at a 38% clip paired with Pletcher over the last two months. Fierceness broke his maiden at the Spa with an 11-length triumph on debut last August and will compete for the early lead with the likes of Batten Down and Pony Express. His 112 Brisnet Speed figure earned in his Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) upset is the best dirt speed figure among the field, and his 106 BRIS figure two back in the Florida Derby is the top speed figure of the field at today’s distance.