Grade 1 Pacific Classic trends and field analysis

Editor's note: It was announced after publication of this article that Adare Manor will scratch from Saturday's Pacific Classic.

Del Mar's marquee event of the summer meet, the $1 million Pacific Classic (G1) could produce a historic outcome Saturday, as morning-line favorite Adare Manor looks to become the second female to win the 33-year-old race.

First run in 1991, the 1 1/4-mile fixture for three-year-olds and older has seen a number of notable horses reach the winner's circle. Among them are three-time California Horse of the Year Best Pal in the first iteration of the event; Candy Ride, an unbeaten multiple graded stakes winner and top sire who set a speed record in 2003; California Chrome, who is the only Kentucky Derby (G1) winner to triumph in the Pacific Classic; and Beholder, the lone mare to win the race.

Adare Manor could be the next female winner and faces a field of eight male rivals, including stablemate Reincarnate. Her trainer Bob Baffert has a record seven victories in the Pacific Classic and won last year's edition with Arabian Knight. There's a two-way tie for winningest jockey in the Pacific Classic — Mike Smith and the late Garrett Gomez have both reached the winner's circle four times, and Smith could score a fifth win aboard Il Miracolo.

Since 2008, the Pacific Classic has served as a Breeders' Cup Win and You're In challenge series event for the Breeders' Cup Classic (G1), which will be held at the same distance and track in 2024.

While Adare Manor could earn a berth to the Classic with a victory Saturday, she is more likely to appear in the Breeders' Cup Distaff (G1), having secured entry through her conquest in the Clement L. Hirsch last out.

Ten-year trends in Pacific Classic

Dating back to 2014, Baffert has celebrated three of his seven victories in the Pacific Classic, including 2017 with Collected and 2020 with Maximum Security. John Sadler has been slightly more successful in the last decade, with four wins — Accelerate in 2018, Higher Power in 2019, Tripoli in 2021, and Flightline in 2022, who received American Horse of the Year honors at the end of that year.

Among jockeys, Flavien Prat has won the last two runnings of the Pacific Classic and three overall, but he will miss the 2024 edition of the race as he's competing at Kentucky Downs on Saturday. Of the riders in the 2024 Classic, Smith and Tiago Pereira (2021) are the only to have previously reached the winner's circle in the event.

In the last decade, seven post-time favorites have crossed the wire first; the three exceptions were 3-1 choice Collected in 2017, 9.60-1 Higher Power in 2019, and 6.50-1 Tripoli in 2021.

While Candy Ride set the speed record at 1:59.11 in 2003, Flightline had the second-fastest time at 1:59.28 in 2022. Beholder stopped the clock at 1:59.77 (the seventh-fastest time) in 2015.

Now that we've glanced at some of the recent Pacific Classic trends, let's look at each runner in the 2024 field.

Pacific Classic horse-by-horse analysis

Race 10, Pacific Classic (G1), 1 1/4 miles, 3-year-olds and up (9 p.m. ET)

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#1 Il Miracolo (5-1) – A multiple graded stakes winner for trainer Antonio Sano, Il Miracolo last won the 1 1/16-mile Ghostzapper (G3) at Gulfstream Park, then placed a four-length third in the Alysheba (G2) and a 1 1/2-length second in the Philip Iselin (G3) last out. The Gun Runner four-year-old will stretch out to 1 1/4 miles today and will pick up Mike Smith, a 30% winner with routes and a 15% winner at Del Mar. The colt has posted triple-digit Brisnet Speed figures in his last two and is eligible to improve second start off the layoff. He recorded a fast four-furlong workout Aug. 14 at Saratoga, and the rail post could help, as it's producing winners at a 20% clip this meet.

#2 There Goes Harvard (15-1) – The six-year-old son of Will Take Charge has failed to finish in the money in his last five starts. His last win came in the 1 1/4-mile Hollywood Gold Cup (G1) at Santa Anita in May 2022 with a career-best 104 BRIS figure. He's posted 93 and 94 BRIS figures in two starts this season, in which he came home fourth to Johannes in the Shoemaker Mile (G1) on turf and finished ninth to the same rival last out in the 1 1/8-mile Eddie Read (G2), also on the grass. Trainer Michael McCarthy is a 19% winner this meet and a 20% winner switching from turf to dirt. Hector Berrios (24% winner at Del Mar) will pick up the mount.

#3 Dr. Venkman (5-2) – The four-year-old by Ghostzapper makes his sixth lifetime start for Mark Glatt (19% winner this meet) and has never finished worse than second in his career. The gelding won the 1 1/16-mile San Diego H. (G2) last out with a 103 BRIS figure and beat one of today's rival, Katonah, by a length while improving his record at Del Mar to 3-for-3. He'll retain the services of Antonio Fresu, who's 23-6-5-3 over the last week. Glatt is also a 21% winner with horses who won their last race and a 13% winner in graded stakes.

#4 Reincarnate (8-1) – The gray colt will look to snap a six-loss streak and will cut back in distance after finishing a 10-length second as the favorite in the 1 1/2-mile Cougar II S. (G3). The Good Magic four-year-old is 0-for-3 with a runner-up and third from three tries at today's distance and had the lead in the stretch but ultimately finished second by 2 1/4 lengths in the 1 1/4-mile Hollywood Gold Cup (G2) two back. Trainer Bob Baffert is a 31% winner this meet and a 33% winner with beaten favorites. Kazushi Kimura will pick up the mount for Juan Hernandez, who opted to ride stablemate and morning-line favorite Adare Manor.

#5 Katonah (8-1) – The late runner won two back in the one-mile and 70-yard Pleasanton Mile S., then stretched out to 1 1/16 miles and finished a length second to Dr. Venkman in the San Diego H. The Klimt gelding is 0-for-3 with two runner-up finishes at Del Mar and may step forward second start off the layoff. He earned a career-best 102 BRIS figure last out and posted a trio of sharp workouts at Del Mar. Doug O'Neill is a 7% winner in graded stakes, and regular rider Tiago Pereira is 65-4-4-11 at Del Mar.

#6 Full Serrano (12-1) – The five-year-old started his career in Argentina, where he earned four of his five victories. He made his U.S. debut on Aug. 3 at Del Mar in a one-mile allowance optional claimer and won by 2 1/4 lengths over nine rivals. The John Sadler pupil will now make his second start off the layoff and will get Reylu Gutierrez aboard. Full Serrano has raced at the distance of 1 3/16 miles four times, with three of those efforts on turf. He scored a win four back at the distance and a nose second three back.

#7 Adare Manor (9-5) – The morning-line favorite for Bob Baffert is riding a three-win streak, with victories in the 1 1/16-mile Apple Blossom (G1), 1 1/8-mile Santa Margarita (G2), and 1 1/16-mile Clement L. Hirsch (G1) against females. She's taking on males for the first time and racing her longest distance to date. Her 105 BRIS figure last out is the highest last-race speed rating among the field and best overall dirt speed figure. Regular rider Juan Hernandez will stay in the saddle and is winning at a 38% clip paired with Baffert over the last two months. Baffert also strikes at a 38% rate with horses coming off a win.

#8 None Above the Law (20-1) – The Karakontie gelding won two back in a one-mile state-restricted stakes at Los Alamitos, then switched to turf for the 1 1/16-mile California Dreamin' S., where he came home third. The six-year-old will pick up Jeremy Laprida, who's 39-1-5-4 this meet, but his trainer is 0-for-20 at Del Mar. None Above the Law has posted speed figures in the range of 82 to 97 in his last five starts and will need a lot to go his way to best today's rivals.

#9 Mixto (20-1) – Another in the barn of Doug O'Neill, the Good Magic colt last won seven starts back when breaking his maiden at a mile at Del Mar. He's returning off a 55-day layoff here and will try 1 1/4 miles for the third time in his career. He failed to finish in the money in his two prior tries, and he's 1-for-5 at Del Mar.