Grade 1 Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup trends and field analysis

First held in 1984 in honor of Britain’s late monarch, the Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup (G1) will return Saturday for the 41st edition at Keeneland, where the famed sovereign attended the races and presented a trophy for the inaugural running.

Contested over 1 1/8 miles on the turf, the QEII Cup began as a 1 1/16-mile dirt race but switched to grass in 1985. The event was lengthened to nine furlongs in 1990 and has remained at that distance ever since. It earned Grade 1 status the following year.

In 1996, multiple graded stakes winner Memories of Silver covered 1 1/8 miles in 1:45.81 to set a new stakes record that has yet to be broken. Her trainer Jimmy Toner is a three-time QEII Cup winner, two victories shy of the record holder, Chad Brown, who earned his first win in 2012 and his fifth in 2022 with Gina Romantica.

Hall of Fame rider John Velazquez is the winningest jockey in the QEII Cup, with five victories as well (1995, 2008, 2014, 2016, 2019). Both Velazquez and Brown have opportunities to extend their records in the 2024 QEII Cup, with Velazquez on the mount of morning-line favorite She Feels Pretty and Brown represented by two entries — Oversubscribed and Grayosh.

Ten-year trends in QEII Cup

Over the last decade, Brown has scored four of his five total victories, with Rushing Fall (2018), Cambier Parc (2019), Shantisara (2021), and Gina Romantica (2022). The only other trainer to win multiple times in the last 10 runnings is Bill Mott, with Crown Queen (2014) and Harvey’s Lil Goil (2020).

Among jockeys, Velazquez has visited the winner’s circle three times dating back to 2014, and Flavien Prat went back to back in 2021 and 2022 with horses in Brown’s barn. In 2024, he will guide Grayosh for the New York-born trainer.

In the last decade, four post-time favorites have won the QEII Cup, and short-priced horses have performed well overall, with all but one winner in the last 10 runnings going off at odds of 5-1 or shorter. The exception was 19-1 upsetter Her Emmynency in 2015.

Eight of the last 10 winners were Kentucky-breds and two were foaled in Ireland. Two of the last 10 QEII Cup victresses also used the event as a final prep before the Breeders’ Cup. In 2020, Harvey’s Lil Goil prevailed in the QEII Cup, then came home third in the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf (G1), while Mawj triumphed at Keeneland last October, then missed by a nose to Master of The Seas in the Breeders’ Cup Mile (G1).

Now that we've looked over some of the recent Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup trends, let's examine each runner in the 2024 field.

Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup horse-by-horse analysis

Race 8, QEII Cup (G1), 1 1/8 miles (turf), 3yo fillies (4:44 p.m. ET)

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#1 Pin Up Betty (20-1) — Winner of the 1 1/8-mile Regret (G3) earlier in the season, the daughter of Constitution rides a three-loss streak ahead of today’s test and will cut back in distance after weakening to finish sixth in the 1 5/16-mile Dueling Grounds Oaks at Kentucky Downs on Sept. 11. The Mike Maker trainee posted a career-best 90 Brisnet Speed figure in the loss, but her recent speed figures still pale in comparison to some of today’s rivals. Luis Saez will regain the mount and has two wins and two second-place finishes from four mounts on the filly.

#2 Caitlinhergrtness (12-1) — The Omaha Beach filly beat the boys last out in the 1 1/4-mile King’s Plate on Woodbine’s Tapeta and will switch back to turf, where she won first time out on the grass in a 7 1/2-furlong allowance optional claimer at the Canadian track in early July. The Kevin Attard pupil is a neck shy of a 3-for-3 record since joining the trainer’s barn, and she’ll pick up the services of Frankie Dettori on Saturday. WinStar Farm and Siena Farm's Ontario-bred posted a bullet five-furlong workout on Oct. 5 at Woodbine and will return off a 50-day layoff here.

#3 She Feels Pretty (5-2) — By Karakontie, the chestnut filly has finished in the money in all six career starts, with a 6-3-1-2 record overall, and was beaten a neck last out as the favorite in the 1 1/16-mile Lake Placid (G2) over turf labeled good at Saratoga. Her most recent win came three starts back in the one-mile Hilltop S., where she posted a career-best 94 BRIS figure. Regular rider John Velazquez is back in the saddle, and trainer Cherie DeVaux is a 20% winner off layoffs of 46-90 days. She Feels Pretty will add blinkers for the first time and put in a bullet four-furlong workout at Keeneland on Sept. 30.

#4 Waves of Mischief (12-1) — A daughter of Into Mischief, the Brendan Walsh trainee upset the 1 1/8-mile Pucker Up (G3) at Ellis Park two back, then stretched out to 1 5/16 miles in the Dueling Grounds Oaks and came home second by 2 1/2 lengths while recording a 92 BRIS figure. Tyler Gaffalione will retain the mount and is winning at a 19% clip to start the Keeneland meet. He’s also 12-3-2-0 paired with Walsh over the last 14 days.

#5 Soprano (7-2) — Making her first U.S. start for trainer George Boughey, the Starspangledbanner filly owns a 13-3-1-6 lifetime mark while competing in Europe and succeeded two back in a Group 3 racing a mile at Deauville. Last out, she finished third to Porta Fortuna in the Matron S. (G1) at Leopardstown and will try 1 1/8 miles for the first time in her career. Billy Loughnane will stay in the saddle.

#6 Oversubscribed (6-1) — The lightly raced late closer for Chad Brown boasts a 4-2-2-0 career line and came home a three-quarter-length second last out when rallying late in the one-mile Lake George (G3). She’ll stretch out to 1 1/8 miles for the first time and is bred to relish longer distances. She broke her maiden on debut when covering 1 1/16 miles on Tampa Bay Downs’ turf and scored a stakes win two back in the one-mile Wild Applause at Belmont at Aqueduct. Irad Ortiz Jr. will ride and finished second on his previous mount with Oversubscribed in a 1 1/16-mile allowance optional claimer back in May. Brown is a 22% winner at Keeneland this meet and a 21% winner in graded stakes.

#7 Buchu (15-1) — Another late closer, the Justify filly will attempt to snap a four-loss streak by returning to a track where she’s 2-for-2, including victories in the 1 1/16-mile Jessamine (G2) and one-mile Appalachian (G2). Trainer Phil Bauer is a 16% winner in graded stakes and with horses returning off a layoff of 46-90 days. Junior Alvarado will pick up the mount on the filly, who recorded a career-best 96 BRIS figure last out when fourth in the 1 1/8-mile Del Mar Oaks (G1) on Aug. 17.

#8 Pounce (12-1) — By Lookin At Lucky, the Mark Casse pupil won the Lake George two back, then cut back to 6 1/2 furlongs for the Music City S. (G2) at Kentucky Downs and came home a four-length ninth. The three-year-old is 4-for-8 for her career but has never raced farther than a mile. Jose Ortiz will inherit the mount and strikes 18% of the time on turf. 

#9 Grayosh (8-1)  — The second Chad Brown runner in the field, the gray filly recorded a career-best 90 BRIS figure last out when winning the 1 1/16-mile Lake Placid, where she beat today’s rival She Feels Pretty by a neck. Flavien Prat will stick with the sophomore for the third straight start and is winning at a 29% rate paired with Brown over the last 60 days.

#10 Candala (9-2) — A daughter of Frankel, the Aga Khan homebred will make her U.S. debut for trainer Francis-Henri Graffard. The filly is 2-for-6 lifetime while racing in France and has run primarily over soft turf, which she’s unlikely to get on Saturday. Candala won in April in the one-mile Prix de la Grotte (G3) but is 0-for-3 since stretching out farther. Florent Geroux (17-2-1-0 to start the meet) will gain the mount.