Grade 2 Raven Run trends and field analysis

The highlight of Keeneland’s 10-race card on Saturday, the 26th running of the Raven Run (G2) will pit Stonestreet Stables filly Emery against a tough group of female sophomores in the seven-furlong sprint.

Named after the 374-acre nature sanctuary near Lexington, the Raven Run was inaugurated in 1999 and has served as a final prep for the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint (G1) for a handful of runners, including Shamrock Rose, who won both the Raven Run and Filly & Mare Sprint in 2018.

In the history of the race, just two trainers have managed to win the Raven Run twice: Robert Frankel in 2002 and 2007, and John T. Ward Jr. in 2000 and 2005. Pat Day and John Velazquez are tied with the most victories by a jockey, with three apiece.

Ten-year trends in Raven Run

In the last decade, only Tyler Gaffalione (Shamrock Rose, 2018; Wicked Halo, 2022) and Julien Leparoux (Lightstream, 2016; Miss Sunset, 2017) have visited the winner’s circle more than once dating back to 2014. Gaffalione could earn a record-tying third win in 2024 with morning-line favorite Emery.

Four post-time favorites have crossed the finish line first in the last 10 runnings, while a runner sent off at odds of 7-1 or longer has won four times since 2014. The longest shot to succeed in that time span was Shamrock Rose at 18.70-1, followed by Sarah Sis at 17-1 in 2015. 

Now that we've explored some of the recent Raven Run trends, let's look at each runner in the 2024 field.

Raven Run horse-by-horse analysis

Race 9, Raven Run (G2), 7 furlongs, 3yo fillies (5:16 p.m. ET)

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#1 Fibber (10-1) – A three-year-old by Frosted, Fibber is 2-for-3 with a second-place finish since joining Chris Hartman’s barn earlier this year. The gray filly won her first start with Hartman in a 6 1/2-furlong allowance optional claimer at Churchill and clocked a 94 Brisnet Speed figure, then stretched out to seven furlongs and recorded a 2 1/4-length victory in the Audubon Oaks at Ellis Park on Aug. 11. Last out, she jumped up to graded stakes company and finished a five-length second to today’s rival My Mane Squeeze in the seven-furlong Dogwood (G3). Rafael Bejarano will pick up the mount on the late runner, who posted a bullet five-furlong workout at Churchill on Oct. 9. Hartman is a 21% winner with sprints but strikes just 3% of the time in graded stakes.

#2 Miuccia (6-1) – The daughter of Mitole earned a career-best 97 BRIS figure last out when finishing a length third to Brightwork in the six-furlong Prioress (G3) over a track labeled good. The Gustavo Delgado trainee has competed at the distance of six furlongs in five of her six lifetime starts. The lone exception was a seven-furlong stakes in which she came home second by 9 1/2 lengths to today’s rival Haulin Ice at Gulfstream Park two back. Irad Ortiz Jr. will retain the mount on the filly, who will return off a 49-day layoff. Miuccia will look to rally late and recorded a 93 Late Pace rating last out.

#3 My Mane Squeeze (4-1) – Another late runner, the Audible filly dominated by five lengths in her most recent start, the Dogwood at Churchill, to improve her season record to 8-4-1-1. The Mike Maker pupil has finished in the money in all five lifetime tries at seven furlongs, and she’ll keep regular rider Luis Saez, who’s winning at a 14% clip this meet. My Mane Squeeze scored a 93 BRIS figure last out with a 121 Class Rating when defeating seven rivals. Maker is a 19% winner with horses who won their last race and a 9% winner in graded stakes. 

#4 Twirling Queen (10-1) – The Twirling Candy three-year-old is on a four-win streak since joining the barn of Jose D’Angelo, but she’s been racing on turf or all-weather. She’ll return to dirt for the first time in five starts and stretch out to seven furlongs for the second time. Francisco Arrieta (a 4% winner this meet) will regain the mount and won with the filly two back in the 5 1/2-furlong Mamzelle S. on Churchill’s turf. Twirling Queen posted a bullet three-furlong workout at Keeneland on Oct. 4, but her recent speed figures are lower than some of her top rivals in the field.

#5 Emery (7-5) – The More Than Ready filly had a three-win streak snapped last out when a 2 1/2-length second to Ways and Means in the seven-furlong Test (G1) over a muddy Saratoga track. Prior to her runner-up finish, she won the 6 1/2-furlong Victory Ride (G3) at Aqueduct and the seven-furlong Leslie’s Lady Overnight S. at Churchill. The Brad Cox trainee recorded a career-best 101 BRIS figure in her graded stakes tally and will keep Tyler Gaffalione in the saddle. She’s eligible to improve off a two-month layoff and won her lone previous start at Keeneland in a six-furlong allowance optional claimer back in April.

#6 V V’s Dream (8-1) – As a two-year-old, V V’s Dream garnered a ton of hype early on the Kentucky Oaks (G1) trail after she romped to an 8 3/4-length win in the one-mile Pocahontas (G3) at Churchill. Stretching out in distance proved uncomfortable territory for the Mitole daughter, and trainer Kenny McPeek cut her back to six furlongs last out in an allowance optional claimer at Churchill, where she came home third to Mink's Palace. The gray three-year-old could improve second start off the layoff and put in a bullet five-furlong workout on Oct. 12.

#7 Mink’s Palace (12-1) – By Palace Malice, the sophomore filly won last out in a six-furlong allowance optional claimer at Churchill, edging today's rival Riperton by a head. The Eddie Kenneally trainee will regain Jose Ortiz, who won with the three-year-old three back in a dominant four-length victory at Churchill, and Kenneally is a 14% winner with horses who won their last race. Mink's Palace will move back up in class for her second stakes effort and was a 7 1/2-length fourth two back in the Audubon Oaks. Her career-best Speed figure (93) came in her second career start over a muddy Churchill track, and she'll need a major step forward today to upset the top contenders.

#8 Uno Le (30-1) – A daughter of Klimt, Uno Le will make just her third career start today after breaking her maiden last out in a 6 1/2-furlong sprint over a muddy Churchill track. She posted a light 82 BRIS figure in the win and will move up in class in her second start for the barn of Roddina Barrett. Gerardo Corrales will inherit the mount on the huge longshot.

#9 Riperton (20-1) – The Constitution filly has faced allowance company in her last five starts and recorded a career-best 90 BRIS figure last out when a head second to Mink's Palace in a six-furlong allowance optional claimer. Trainer Paulo Lobo is a 27% winner in sprints but a 6% winner in graded stakes. Cristian Torres is 0-for-3 in his previous three mounts on Riperton but secured a one-length second in a 1 1/16-mile allowance optional claimer at Keeneland in which Riperton set the early pace before she was headed leaving the quarter pole.

#10 Haulin Ice (12-1) – The gray filly carried out a 9 1/2-length rout two back in the seven-furlong Azalea S. at Gulfstream Park, then jumped up to graded stakes company in the Charles Town Oaks (G2) at the same distance and came up empty when a 12-length seventh. The Saffie Joseph pupil will make her fourth start since transferring to the trainer's barn, and she will ship to Keeneland for the first time. Luan Machado will pick up the mount on the Coal Front daughter, who recorded a sharp four-furlong workout at Keeneland Oct. 10. Haulin Ice is 8-4-3-0 this season with a career-best 100 BRIS figure in her stakes victory.