Grade 3 Ack Ack trends and field analysis

Churchill Downs’ final Downs After Dark of the 2024 calendar year will offer a Breeders’ Cup berth to the winner of the $400,000 Ack Ack (G3) on Saturday.

The one-mile race for three-year-olds and older drew a field of seven, highlighted by multiple graded stakes winner Saudi Crown, who appeared in last season’s Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1) and finished a disappointing 10th while facing 11 rivals.

Installed as the 4-5 morning-line favorite for trainer Brad Cox, Saudi Crown will attempt to earn not only a second Breeders’ Cup appearance — a bid to the Dirt Mile (G1) is on the line Saturday — but a second straight victory for Cox’s barn in the Ack Ack.

The Louisville native visited the winner’s circle last year with Zozos and achieved his first Ack Ack victory with Plainsman in 2021.

Inaugurated in 1991, the Ack Ack began as a one-mile dirt route but shortened up to 7 1/2 furlongs in its second running in 1994. The distance remained at 7 1/2 furlongs until 2006, when it returned to a mile for the next four editions. From 2010-11, the Ack Ack was contested over 1 1/16 miles, then permanently shortened back up to eight furlongs in 2012.

Named after the 1971 Horse of the Year by the same name, the Ack Ack became a Grade 3 in 1997.

Six trainers have won the Ack Ack twice, including Cox (2021, 2023), Dallas Stewart (2016, 2018), Steve Asmussen (2008, 2015), Paul McGee (2002, 2009), Bill Mott (2001, 2007), and Bobby Barnett (1996, 1999).

Calvin Borel is the winningest jockey with four victories in the race (1996, 1998-99, 2004).

Ten-year trends in Ack Ack

Dating back to 2014, Cox and Stewart are the only trainers to earn multiple wins over the last decade, and jockeys Brian Hernandez Jr. and Corey Lanerie boast two wins apiece in that time span.

Over the last 10 years, three post-time favorites have won the Ack Ack, while Mr. Money in 2020 and Mr Freeze in 2019 were the longest-priced horses to prevail, both at 6.40-1. In 2013, Pants on Fire set an Ack Ack S. speed record for a mile at 1:33.78.

Now that we've explored some of the recent Ack Ack trends, let's look at each runner in the 2024 field.

Ack Ack horse-by-horse analysis

Race 8, Ack Ack (G3), one mile, 3yo and up (9:37 p.m. ET)

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#1 Tumbarumba (6-1) – The Oscar Performance gelding has won or placed in his last seven starts and finished a length second to today's rival Cagliostro last out in the one-mile Hanshin at Churchill on June 30. The four-year-old will return off a more than three-month layoff for trainer Brian Lynch and will retain hot jockey Luis Saez, a 22% winner this meet. Tumbarumba is a horse for the course, with a 4-2-1-1 record at Churchill, and he's 4-2-2-0 from today's distance. He also posted a swift four-furlong workout Sept. 14 at Churchill and is an excellent chance to finish top three.

#2 Stage Raider (15-1) – One of two for Cherie DeVaux, the six-year-old by Pioneerof the Nile came home last of eight in the 1 1/8-mile Monmouth Cup (G3) last out and will make his first start in more than two months. His last victory came seven starts back in a one-mile non-graded stakes at Ellis, and his recent speed figures are poor compared to today's field. The late runner will regain Brian Hernandez Jr., a 13% winner this meet. His most recent try at today's distance resulted in an even fourth in the Salvator Mile (G3) in June.

#3 Cagliostro (7-2) – The other DeVaux trainee, the Upstart colt kicked off his four-year-old campaign with a win at Keeneland in a 1 1/16-mile allowance in April, then stepped back up to graded stakes company and had the lead in the stretch before he was caught late by Highland Falls in the 1 1/8-mile Blame (G3) at Churchill on June 1. Cagliostro rebounded when cutting back to a mile in the Hanshin, then cut back even farther in the seven-furlong Forego (G1), where he stumbled badly at the start and recovered to finish a distant fourth to Mullikin. DeVaux is a 17% winner with horses going from a sprint to a route distance, and Jose Ortiz (21% with routes) will stay in the saddle. Cagliostro has a win and two second-place finishes from three starts at Churchill.

#4 Mufasa (4-1) – The Nacho Correas trainee is cross-entered in the Vosburgh (G3) and arrived at Belmont at the Big A earlier this week. Without the Chilean runner in the Ack Ack field, Saudi Crown becomes the lone early speed.

#5 Three Technique (15-1) – A late closer for Jason Cook, the seven-year-old by Mr Speaker has failed to finish in the money in his last six starts. Most recently, he came home fifth by 4 1/4 lengths to Saudi Crown in the R.A. "Cowboy" Jones S. at Ellis Park. He'll return off a 48-day layoff and retain the services of Rafael Bejarano.

#6 Big Blue Line (20-1) – The five-year-old gelding triumphed last out at a mile in his first start since transferring to the barn of Will Walden, a 26% winner with horses who won their last race. He'll move up in class after facing allowance company and picks up Luan Machado, an 11% winner this meet. Big Blue Line boasts a 6-2-2-0 record at Churchill and a 4-1-3-0 mark from today's distance, but his recent speed figures are slightly lower than most of today's rivals.

#7 Saudi Crown (4-5) – Trained by Brad Cox, the gray four-year-old went gate to wire last out in the one-mile R.A. "Cowboy" Jones S. and flashed a 101 Brisnet Speed rating, the highest last-race speed figure among the field. He'll move back up in class and return to Churchill, where he won his lone previous start in a 6 1/2-furlong allowance in May 2023. Cox is a 28% winner at Churchill and with horses who won their last race. Florent Geroux will retain the mount and has gone 11-4-1-1 paired with Cox over the last 14 days.