Grade 3 Chilukki trends and field analysis

The $300,000 Chilukki (G3) is one of two graded stakes on Churchill Downs' 11-race card on Saturday. The one-mile fixture for fillies and mares drew a competitive field of eight, headlined by Rigney Racing's Two Sharp, a lightly raced three-year-old trained by Phil Bauer.

Inaugurated in 1986 and then known as the Churchill Downs-Budweiser Breeders' Cup, the Chilukki was contested at seven furlongs for the first running, then was extended to its current distance of a mile in 1987. In 1988, it earned Grade 3 status, then was elevated to a Grade 2 from 1992 through 2018.

In 2005, the race was renamed the Chilukki after the 2000 winner of the event — then called the Churchill Downs Distaff H. A Bob Baffert trainee, Chilukki set a then-track record of 1:33.57 for the mile distance at Churchill Downs when getting up at the wire just in time to win by a head.

In 2019, the Chilukki S. was relegated to Grade 3 status.

Trainers Dale Romans and Rusty Arnold are tied for the most victories in the Chilukki, with three apiece, while Pat Day and Robby Albarado share the lead for most wins by a jockey, with four each.

Ten-Year Trends in the Chilukki

Romans earned two of his three victories in the last decade, with Molly Morgan in 2014 and Sally's Curlin in 2019. Jockeys Ricardo Santana Jr. (2020 and 2023) and Corey Lanerie (2014, 2019) have each won twice in the last 10 years, while Joe Rocco Jr. secured victories with Kiss to Remember in 2016 and Don't Tell Sophia in 2013.

Five post-time favorites have won the Chilukki dating back to 2014, and only one winner — Kiss to Remember — went off at odds higher than 4-1 in that span. The longshot paid $30.40 to win on a $2 bet when she beat even-money favorite Birdatthewire by a head in 2016.

Now that we've looked at some of the recent Chilukki trends, let's dive into the 2024 field.

Chilukki Horse-by-Horse Analysis

Race 8, Chilukki (G3), one mile, 3yo and up fillies and mares (4:25 p.m. ET)

Click on each contender to add them to your Stable NOW!

#1 Imonra (12-1) — The Violence filly last won a six-furlong allowance optional claimer at Gulfstream Park in April, but since stepping back up to stakes company, she has finished fourth or fifth in her last four starts. The four-year-old will return off a more than two-month layoff for trainer Saffie Joseph, a 15% winner this meet and a 13% winner with graded stakes. Last out, Imonra came home fourth in the Princess Rooney (G3) to next-out Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint (G1) winner Soul of an Angel. She's stretching back out to a mile, a distance from which she is 4-2-2-0, and Luis Saez (23% winner this meet) will pick up the mount.

#2 Pigalle (9-2) — A four-year-old by Blame, Pigalle triumphed by a neck in the one-mile Groupie Doll S. at Ellis Park two back, then jumped up to graded stakes company in the 1 1/16-mile Locust Grove (G2) and yielded between horses near the three-sixteenths pole. She'll return to the mile distance, from which she owns a 7-5-1-0 record, and she'll keep rider Luan Machado. The Tommy Drury Jr. trainee put in a bullet four-furlong workout on Nov. 12 and may benefit from a more than two-month layoff.

#3 Taxed (4-1) — The four-year-old by Collected won at a mile four back in an allowance optional claimer at Churchill under Brian Hernandez Jr., who is named to ride Saturday. The Randy Morse pupil then placed third in the 1 1/8-mile Fleur De Lis (G2) before finishing fifth in her next two starts, the Groupie Doll and Locust Grove. The gray filly will return off a more than two-month layoff and put in a solid work Nov. 16 at Churchill. Taxed is 2-for-6 with two third-place finishes at the track and 2-for-5 at a mile.

#4 Two Sharp (2-1) — The Twirling Candy filly is the only three-year-old in the field and will stretch out to a route distance for the first time after racing between six and 6 1/2 furlongs. The Phil Bauer trainee should have no issue getting the early lead after posting E1 BRIS figures in the high 90s in her last three. Junior Alvarado will stay in the saddle and is winning at a 20% clip this meet. Two Sharp's last-out 98 Brisnet Speed figure is the highest last-race speed figure among the field, and she has put in strong workouts at Churchill this month. She's raced on Lasix in three of her four prior starts and will add blinkers here.

#5 Royal Spa (8-1) — Another Violence filly, Royal Spa is 1-for-6 this season and finished a two-length second last out in a seven-furlong allowance optional claimer at Keeneland. She may improve second start off the layoff for trainer Rudy Brisset (a 26% winner this meet) and she'll stretch back out to a route after racing at sprint distances in her last eight starts. Flavien Prat is named to ride and won with the four-year-old back in April at Keeneland racing about seven furlongs. Royal Spa is 2-for-4 at Churchill but has never raced at a mile.

#6 Positano Sunset (10-1) — The Goldencents four-year-old is on a six-loss streak but was beaten a neck last out as the favorite in a 1 1/16-mile allowance optional claimer at Keeneland, where she switched up tactics and set the early pace, holding a lead in the stretch before she was bested at the wire. Trainer Ian Wilkes is an 18% winner with beaten favorites but a 7% winner in graded stakes. Regular rider Julien Leparoux will ride. Positano Sunset has posted BRIS figures in the 80s in her last two and will need improvement to contend on Saturday.

#7 Oeuvre (6-1) — A five-year-old by Shackleford, Oeuvre dominated by six lengths two back in the six-furlong Jean Elizabeth H. at Hawthorne, then switched back to turf and finished a half-length third in a 5 1/2-furlong allowance at Keeneland. The Chris Block trainee last raced at a mile on the dirt in the 2023 Chilukki and came home an eight-length third. Jareth Loveberry will retain the mount and strikes at a 20% rate with early/presser types.

#8 Fancy (6-1) —  A Justify four-year-old trained by Brendan Walsh, the four-year-old recorded a career-best 100 BRIS figure two back in the Groupie Doll when a neck second to Pigalle, then stretched out to 1 1/16 miles in an allowance optional claimer at Keeneland and went gate to wire while racing on Lasix. Walsh is a 19% winner this meet and a 21% winner second off the layoff. Tyler Gaffalione will stick with the filly, who posted a sharp four-furlong workout Nov. 12. She also boasts a 4-2-1-0 record at Churchill and a 6-2-3-0 record from today's distance.