Grade 3 Iroquois trends and field analysis

The Grade 3 Iroquois for juveniles will kick off the Road to the 151st Kentucky Derby (G1) on Saturday at Churchill Downs and will award points on a sliding scale of 10-5-3-2-1 to the top five finishers.

First run in 1982, the one-mile dirt race was inspired by the first American-bred horse to win the Epsom Derby, Iroquois, who was named after the Native American tribe.

The Iroquois earned Grade 3 status in 1990, and in 2013 the distance of the race was extended to 1 1/16 miles, helping the event attract two-year-olds looking for a Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) prep. The same year, it became a stop on the 2013-14 Road to the Kentucky Derby. The distance was shortened back to a mile in 2020 and permanently became the distance in 2023.

No Iroquois winner has gone on to win the Kentucky Derby, but two Iroquois starters have placed in the Run for the Roses. In 1983, At The Threshold finished third in the Iroquois and third in the 1984 Derby, and in 2016 Lookin At Lee placed second in the prep before finishing runner-up to Always Dreaming in the 2017 Derby.

Both Bill Mott and Dale Romans are tied with the most victories by a trainer in the Iroquois, with four apiece. Mott earned his wins in 1983 with Taylor’s Special, 1990 with Richman, 1991 with Portroe, and 2007 with Court Vision.

Romans visited the winner’s circle more recently with Cleburne in 2013, future standout sire Not This Time in 2016, Dennis’ Moment in 2019, and Sittin On Go in 2020. The latter also set the stakes record for a mile in 1:35.

Ten-year trends in Iroquois 

Aside from Romans, Larry Rivelli is the only other trainer to win the Iroquois multiple times over the last decade, with Cocked and Loaded in 2015 and The Tabulator in 2017. Among jockeys, Corey Lanerie is the only one to win twice in the last 10 runnings.

Since 2013, post-time favorites have under-performed, with only two crossing the wire first — Not This Time at 1.80-1 in 2016 and Dennis’ Moment at 0.40-1 in 2019. Horses priced 9.50-1 or longer have succeeded in the Iroquois six times in the last decade, and the longest shot to prevail since 2013 is 24-1 Sittin On Go. Last year’s winner, West Saratoga, was 12.48-1 at post time.

Now that we've peeked at some of the recent Iroquois trends, let's study each runner in the 2024 field.

Iroquois horse-by-horse analysis

Race 10, Iroquois (G3), one mile, 2yos (5:29 p.m. ET)

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#1 First Resort (12-1) — The two-year-old by Uncle Mo won on debut sprinting 5 1/2 furlongs over a muddy Ellis Park track on July 5 and earned an 80 Brisnet Speed figure when beating nine rivals by 3 1/2 lengths. He followed up the win with a second in the 6 1/2-furlong Saratoga Special (G2), where he set the early pace and held a one-length lead in the stretch before he was collared at the sixteenth pole. Trainer Eoin Harty is a 14% winner going from back-to-back sprints to a route but 0-for-31 in graded stakes. Rafael Bejarano will regain the mount. First Resort also posted a bullet five-furlong workout Sept. 9 at Turfway Park. Note he is cross-entered in a Grade 1 turf event, the Summer S., at Woodbine on Saturday, and he is expected to run there.

#2 Giocoso (10-1) — By Not This Time, the dark bay will make his fourth career start for trainer Keith Desormeaux and won by 6 1/4 lengths last out in a 1 1/16-mile maiden special weight on Ellis Park’s turf while recording a career-best 88 BRIS figure. His lone dirt start came on debut at Churchill on June 20, when he broke slowly and finished a 13-length fifth. Desormeaux strikes at a 15% rate transitioning from turf to dirt but just a 4% rate in graded stakes. Regular rider James Graham is back in the saddle.

#3 Jack’s Time (20-1) — Another Not This Time juvenile, the Kelly Von Hemel pupil wired a 5 1/2-furlong maiden special weight by 10 lengths at Prairie Meadows on Aug. 10 in his lone start. He’ll pick up 2024 Kentucky Derby (G1) winner Brian Hernandez Jr., a 20% winner with early pacesetter types. Von Hemel is an 11% winner first time at a route and a 12% winner with shippers.

#4 Authentic Strike (12-1) — Out of a Smart Strike mare, the son of Authentic led at every call and held on to win by a neck in his debut, a seven-furlong maiden special weight at Ellis Park. Trainer Rodolphe Brisset is a 21% winner first time at a route and an 18% winner with horses coming off a maiden win. Luis Saez will retain the mount and is 2-for-4 paired with Brisset over the last two months.

#5 Owen Almighty (5-2) — The Speightstown two-year-old out of a Bayern mare is unbeaten from two starts and romped to a 4 3/4­-length victory in the seven-furlong Juvenile S. on Aug. 11 at Ellis Park, where he beat today’s race rival Politicallycorrect. He posted a pair of 87 BRIS figures in his two career starts and will make his second start off a layoff. Trainer Brian Lynch is a 20% winner with horses that won their last race, and Irad Ortiz Jr. will gain the mount. Owen Almighty put in a bullet five-furlong work at Churchill on Sept. 7 and already has a win at the track in his career debut on June 20.

#6 Strummin (12-1) — The Flameaway two-year-old made his debut at Keeneland in April and posted four straight placings from that point forward. He switched to turf two back and came home 11th, then returned to dirt and broke his maiden in his sixth career start in a one-mile maiden special weight at Ellis. Cristian Torres picked up the mount in that victory and is back today at Churchill. Two of the colt’s runner-up efforts came at Churchill back in May.

#7 Sandman (6-1) — The Tapit colt faded to finish fifth on debut when sent off as an even-money favorite in a six-furlong maiden special weight at Churchill on June 27. He improved in his second start when stretching out to seven furlongs and crossed the wire first by 1 3/4 lengths at Saratoga last out.

#8 Magnitude (8-1) — Not This Time is represented once again by Magnitude, a two-year-old out of a Bernardini mare who broke his maiden at second asking in a seven-furlong maiden special weight at Ellis and recorded an 85 BRIS figure. The Winchell Thoroughbreds color bearer made his debut in a 5 1/2-furlong maiden special weight at Churchill on June 6 and got up late to finish fourth. He may improve off a nearly two-month layoff, and Steve Asmussen strikes at a 16% rate first time at a route. Tyler Gaffalione will regain the mount.

#9 Firmus (20-1) — By Curlin, the Wayne Catalano pupil will make his second career start after triumphing on debut by 1 1/4 lengths in a six-furlong maiden at Ellis. His 79 BRIS figure is light compared to some of today’s rivals, but he put in a sharp work at Churchill Sept. 9, and his dam was a stakes winner at age two.

#10 Jonathan’s Way (9-2) — One of first-crop sire Vekoma’s 18 winners, Jonathan’s Way impressed on debut with a 4 1/4-length victory at Saratoga, where he earned an 89 BRIS figure in a six-furlong maiden special weight. Trainer Phil Bauer is a 15% winner with shippers and in graded stakes, while Joel Rosario is a 22% winner with routes and 2-for-3 paired with Bauer over the last two months. The colt also posted a bullet four-furlong workout at Churchill on Sept. 7.

#11 Mesero (15-1) — The fourth Not This Time offspring in the field, Mesero succeeded by 1 3/4 lengths over a muddy Ellis track in his first career start, in which the runner-up returned to win his next start. Trainer Dale Romans is a 16% winner first time at a route but a 9% winner off layoffs of 46-90 days. Corey Lanerie will retain the mount on the late runner, who’s a half-brother to multiple graded stakes winner Bleecker Street.

#12 Politicallycorrect (6-1) — The Violence colt started his career 2-for-2, including a win in the six-furlong Bashford Manor S. at Churchill on June 30. Last out, he stretched out to seven furlongs and had the lead top of the stretch but was no match for the surging Owen Almighty in the Juvenile S. at Ellis. Trainer Christopher Davis is a 14% winner with horses going from back-to-back sprints to a route, and Florent Geroux will pick up the mount with Saez opting to ride Authentic Strike.