Grade 3 Sanford S. trends and field analysis

A field of eight two-year-olds will contest the 108th running of the Sanford S. (G3) on Saturday, July 13, during opening weekend of Saratoga’s summer meet. A long list of talented horses have competed in the annual sprint race for juveniles, but it may be most known as the only race champion two-year-old colt and champion three-year-old male Man o’ War failed to win in his 21-start career. 

First run in 1913 as the Sanford Memorial S., the event has been held every year since, with the exception of 1961, 2005, and 2020. In 1927, the race dropped “Memorial” from its name and has been run at Saratoga primarily, but it moved to Belmont Park from 1943 to 1945. The distance of the race was also altered to 5 1/2 furlongs from 1962 to 1968.

Todd Pletcher is the winningest trainer of the Sanford, with eight victories spanning from 1999 to 2021, when Wit reached the winner’s circle for Repole Stable, St. Elias Stable, and Gainesway Farm. John Velazquez has the most victories by a jockey, with seven, and six of those came aboard horses from Pletcher’s barn.

Ten-year trends in Sanford S.

Dating back to 2014, Pletcher has earned three of his eight victories, and Eddie Kenneally has celebrated a win twice in that span. Velazquez has only visited the winner’s circle once in the last decade, while Irad Ortiz Jr. has been dominant, with four wins, and Javier Castellano has two, in 2016 and 2018. 

Post-time favorites have won four times since 2014, and succeeded in three straight in 2018, 2019, and 2021. But with uncertainty surrounding juvenile form, longshots have been wise to back in the Sanford, with runners at odds of 8-1 or longer crossing the wire first in five of the last nine editions. However, 13-1 upsetter Magna Light was disqualified to third for interference in the stretch, which elevated 4-1 choice Uncle Vinny to first in 2015.

The longest shot to win in the last decade was Yo Yo Candy at 46-1 in 2023, and the shortest price was Bitumen at 0.95-1 in 2016. The speed record of 1:09.32 was set by Afleet Alex in 2004, and the fastest time of the last decade was 1:10.22, achieved by By Your Side in 2019. 

Now that we've glanced at some of the recent Sanford S. trends, let's look at each runner in the 2024 field.

Sanford S. horse-by-horse analysis

Race 11, Sanford S. (G3), six furlongs, 2yos (6:17 p.m. ET)

#1 Mentee (6-5) — A full-brother to Fierceness, the City of Light colt had a five-length lead entering the stretch but was nearly caught at the wire when he won by a nose in a $90K maiden special weight at Belmont at the Big A on June 15. The early pacesetter completed five furlongs in 56.97 seconds and earned an 81 Brisnet Speed figure in his debut. John Velazquez will retain the mount, and trainer Todd Pletcher is a 24% winner with horses coming off a maiden win.

#2 Mr. Squeaky Wheels (15-1) — The Gormley gelding won by 3 1/4 lengths on debut in a 4 1/2-furlong maiden special weight on Presque Isle Downs’ all-weather and posted a 74 BRIS figure. Jose Ortiz, a 20% winner in sprints, will pick up the mount. Rice is 2-for-30 coming off a maiden win and 1-for-20 switching from all-weather to dirt.

#3 Baby Dukes (12-1) — Another debut winner, the Maximus Mischief son drew off to win by four lengths in a 4 1/2-furlong maiden special weight on Parx’s main track on June 24 and clocked a 74 BRIS figure. Butch Reid is a 22% winner with horses coming off a maiden victory but a 9% winner in graded stakes. Jose Lezcano will inherit the mount and strikes at a 25% rate with sprints.

#4 Soontobeking (20-1) — The King for a Day juvenile made his debut in a five-furlong maiden special weight over a muddy Aqueduct track and finished third against five rivals while conditioned by George Weaver. He then moved to Mitchell Friedman’s barn and broke his maiden in his second career start when stretching out slightly to 5 1/2 furlongs at the same track. He’s back under the care of Weaver and returning off a 50-day layoff. Eric Cancel will retain the mount on the closer. Speed figures are lighter compared to others in the field; his career-best is a 78 last out.

#5 Three Echoes (4-1) — The Steve Asmussen pupil was a three-quarter-length winner on debut in a five-furlong maiden special weight over a Churchill track labeled good, then jumped to stakes company in the Tremont and finished third as a 2.45 second choice at post time. The winner, Studlydoright, closed late to win by 1 3/4 lengths as a 14-1 longshot and will re-oppose Three Echoes. Flavien Prat is back in the saddle and has posted a 20-8-4-1 record over the last week. Asmussen is a 19% winner with sprints and an 18% winner in graded stakes.

#6 Studlydoright (7-2) — A son of Nyquist, the $110K yearling purchase is unbeaten from two starts and moves up in class off his Tremont score. His 89 BRIS figure last out is the highest last race speed rating among the field. Trainer John Robb is a 21% winner with horses that won their last race, and Xavier Perez is a 13% winner paired with Robb over their last 40 starts together. The colt also put in a sharp five-furlong workout on July 6.

#7 War Tax (15-1) — An Outwork colt, War Tax crossed the wire first by two lengths on debut in a five-furlong maiden special weight at Aqueduct on May 27, then stretched out in the six-furlong Bashford Manor S. and tired to finish eighth by 21 lengths on June 30. Carlos Martin is a 12% winner with juveniles but a 9% winner with sprints from 296 starters. Javier Castellano will pick up the mount and strikes at a 14% rate with early pacesetter types.

#8 Mo Plex (6-1) — A 10-length winner on debut in a state-restricted maiden special weight, the Complexity colt will ship to Saratoga for Jeremiah Englehart, who’s a 20% winner with horses coming off a maiden win. Irad Ortiz Jr. is a 21% winner with sprints and has won this race four times since 2014. Mo Plex put in a sharp four-furlong workout July 7, and he’s got the pedigree to handle the mud, which we could get on Saturday.