Grade 3 Virginia Derby trends and field analysis

The annual $500,000 New Kent County Virginia Derby (G3) is the highlight of closing day at Colonial Downs on Saturday, Sept. 7.

First run in 1998, the 1 1/8-mile turf test will mark the final edition of the Virginia Derby contested on the grass, as the race will move to dirt in 2025 and will serve as a Road to the Kentucky Derby (G1) prep race during a new spring racing season at Colonial.

From 1998 to 2013, the Virginia Derby was held at the distance of 1 1/4 miles and earned Grade 3 status in 2004, when former U.S. champion turf male and the 2013 and 2018 North American leading sire Kitten’s Joy won the event. The Dale Romans trainee was guided by Edgar Prado, who owns the most victories by a jockey in the Virginia Derby, with three (2002-04). 

The 2007 champion turf male English Channel triumphed in the 2005 Virginia Derby for trainer Todd Pletcher, who is tied with Romans, Bill Mott, and Graham Motion for the most wins in the race, with three apiece.

From 2006 to 2016, the Virginia Derby became a Grade 2 event and returned to Grade 3 status in 2017, the year Just Howard set a speed record at the distance of 1 1/8 miles. He stopped the clock in 1:45.81 at Laurel Park, which briefly hosted the event from 2015-2017. The Virginia Derby was renamed the Commonwealth Derby during the short stint in Maryland.

The Virginia Derby has been held every year since 1998, aside from 2014, 2018, and 2020.

Ten-year trends in Virginia Derby

Over the last 10 runnings of the Virginia Derby, Motion has won the most as a trainer, earning all three of his trips to the winner’s circle in 2017, 2019, and 2021 with Just Howard, English Bee, and Wootton Asset, respectively.

No jockey has achieved multiple victories between 2011 and 2023.

Dating back to 2011, three post-time favorites have won the Virginia Derby — Capensis at 1.60-1 (2022), English Bee at 2-1 2019), and Silver Max at 0.90-1 (2012). The longest shot to win in the last decade is 35.20-1 One Go All Go in 2015.

Now that we've looked at some of the recent Virginia Derby trends, let's examine each runner in the 2024 field.

Virginia Derby horse-by-horse analysis

Race 10, Virginia Derby (G3), 1 1/8 miles, 3yos (6:15 p.m. ET)

#1 Herchee (5-1) – The unbeaten Twirling Candy colt has won both career starts at a mile and posted an 89 Brisnet Speed figure on debut when beating eight rivals by 3 1/2 lengths at Churchill Downs in June. He then pressed the early pace before taking a lead in the stretch and held on to win by three-quarters of a length in a one-mile allowance at Ellis Park on July 27. He earned an 88 Brisnet Speed figure in the effort. Trainer Helen Pitts is a 26% winner with shippers and a 13% winner with horses who won their last race. Edgar Morales will retain the mount and strikes 16% of the time on turf.

#2 Grand Mo the First (4-1) – The Uncle Mo colt will make his ninth career start today and is returning off a neck victory in the one-mile Bear’s Den S. at Gulfstream Park. The late runner has a win and a third from two career tries on the grass with a career-best 88 BRIS figure earned in his most recent start. He will pick up Paco Lopez, who is 5-1-1-1 at Colonial this meet and a 20% winner on turf. Trainer Victor Barboza is a 24% winner second start off the layoff and with shippers.

#3 Deterministic (3-1) – The lukewarm morning-line favorite rides a four-loss streak heading into the Virginia Derby. Last out, he finished third to stablemate Carson’s Run in the Saratoga Derby (G1) in Deterministic’s second career turf start. The Liam’s Map colt began his career on dirt and appeared along the Road to the Kentucky Derby. Trainer Christophe Clement has a 13% win percentage in graded stakes, and new rider Manny Franco is a 16% winner on turf. The colt’s 100 BRIS figure in the Saratoga Derby is the highest last-race speed figure among today’s field.  

#4 Izzy d’Oro (30-1) – A son of Get Stormy, the Blake Kelly pupil is 2-for-7 lifetime and 1-for-6 on the turf, with his lone victory on the grass coming in a 1 3/16-mile allowance at Keeneland on April 26 three starts back. He finished a five-length fourth to Carson’s Run in the Tale of the Cat S. two back and was beaten to fifth by the same rival in the Saratoga Derby. Izzy d’Oro had the early lead through the second call in his most recent start and recorded a career-best 91 BRIS figure. David Cohen will pick up the mount on the longshot.

#5 Frontline Warrior (30-1) — A War Front colt trained by Shug McGaughey, Frontline Warrior is 1-for-7 lifetime and last reached the winner’s circle in a one-mile maiden special weight at Keeneland back in October of 2023. He has failed to finish in the money in his last four starts and was a two-length fifth to Desvio, a rival today, in the 1 3/8-mile Kent S. last out at Delaware Park.

#6 In a Jam (6-1) — The Preservationist colt won three back in a 1 1/16-mile stakes on Gulfstream’s all-weather, then switched back to turf and faltered to finish fourth to Fulmineo, a rival today, in the Boston S. at Colonial over soft going. Last out, he appeared in the one-mile Secretariat (G2) at the same track and was a 6 1/4-length third. The gray three-year-old is 9-2-3-2 on turf, but his recent speed figures are light compared to the rest of the field. He’ll pick up Mychel Sanchez, an 11% winner on turf. 

#7 Desvio (8-1) – The gray gelding is riding a two-race win streak, including a three-quarter-length victory in the Kent S. last out. Trained by Madison Meyers, Desvio clocked a 95 BRIS figure in his recent win, and he’ll retain the same rider, Ben Curtis, who’s winning at a 19% clip this meet and is 3-for-7 paired with Meyers over the last two months. Desvio’s lone loss from three tries on turf came on debut in a six-furlong maiden special weight at Laurel Park, where he finished fourth by 1 1/4 lengths.

#8 Massif (30-1) — A Sky Mesa gelding, the Brittany Russell trainee is 11-2-3-2 on the turf and won two back in a state-restricted allowance at Colonial. Last out, he faded to finish a five-length eighth as the favorite in a 1 1/16-mile allowance optional claimer and posted a 74 BRIS figure. Sheldon Russell will stay in the saddle.

#9 Echo Lane (15-1) — Trainer Rohan Crichton has been hot at Colonial, posting a 15-4-4-1 record this meet, but he’s 0-for-14 in graded stakes. His three-year-old Echo Lane won last out at today’s distance of 1 1/8 miles in an allowance at Colonial and clocked an 84 BRIS figure. He’ll move up in class and keep rider Antonio Gallardo, an 18% winner this meet who’s 2-for-4 paired with Crichton over the last 60 days. Echo Lane owns a 7-3-1-1 record on the turf and a 3-1-1-0 mark at Colonial.

#10 Oscar’s World (12-1) — By Oscar Performance, the ridgling most recently appeared in a 1 1/8-mile stakes at Ellis Park, where he set the early pace but yielded with a furlong to go and finished fourth by 4 1/2 lengths with a 90 BRIS figure. Trainer Brian Lynch is a 16% winner on turf and an 18% winner with shippers. Martin Garcia will retain the mount and won two back with the three-year-old in a 1 1/16-mile allowance optional claimer at Ellis.

#11 Fulmineo (15-1) —  A late closer by Bolt d’Oro, Fulmineo got up to win the one-mile Boston S. over soft turf at Colonial two back, then stretched out to 1 3/16 miles in the Saratoga Derby and tired to finish last of six. Trainer Arnaud Delacour is a 24% winner this meet but just a 3% winner in graded stakes. Victor Carrasco (24% winner this meet) will pick up the mount. He and Delacour are 3-for-5 together over the last 14 days.

#12 Zverev (10-1) — Another son of Oscar Performance, the Cherie DeVaux trainee won two back in a 1 1/16-mile allowance at Churchill in June and beat next-out winner West Hollywood, who went on to triumph in the Saranac (G3) last weekend at Saratoga. Last out, Zverev appeared in the Hall of Fame (G2) and had a troubled trip resulting in a 3 1/4-length sixth. Jorge Ruiz will keep the mount and strikes 17% of the time on turf. Zverev is 1-for-7 on the grass, and his only other career win came on all-weather at Tampa Bay Downs in March.